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The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…
In [1], we introduced a new, matrix algebraic, performance analysis framework for wireless systems with fading channels based on the matrix exponential distribution. The main idea was to use the compact, powerful, and easy-to-use, matrix…
The accurate estimation of the noise covariance matrix (NCM) in a dynamic system is critical for state estimation and control, as it has a major influence in their optimality. Although a large number of NCM estimation methods have been…
We analyze the distribution of the signal to noise ratio (SNR) loss at the output of an adaptive filter which is trained with samples that do not share the same covariance matrix as the samples for which the filter is foreseen. Our…
The effect of a small amount of noise on the standard mapping is considered. Whenever the standard mapping possesses accelerator modes (where the action increases approximately linearly with time), the diffusion coefficient contains a term…
We provide a novel characterization of semiparametric efficiency in a generic supervised learning setting where the outcome mean function -- defined as the conditional expectation of the outcome of interest given the other observed…
In this paper we propose a general series method to estimate a semiparametric partially linear varying coefficient model. We establish the consistency and \sqrtn-normality property of the estimator of the finite-dimensional parameters of…
Covariance matrix plays a central role in multivariate statistical analysis. Significant advances have been made recently on developing both theory and methodology for estimating large covariance matrices. However, a minimax theory has yet…
In this work, the issue of obtaining consistent parameter estimators for nonlinear regression models where the regressors are second-order modulus functions is explored. It is shown that consistent instrumental variable estimators can be…
We consider the problem of sequential evaluation, in which an evaluator observes candidates in a sequence and assigns scores to these candidates in an online, irrevocable fashion. Motivated by the psychology literature that has studied…
Although a majority of the theoretical literature in high-dimensional statistics has focused on settings which involve fully-observed data, settings with missing values and corruptions are common in practice. We consider the problems of…
The use of numerical simulation for prediction of characteristics of chaotic dynamical systems inherently involves unpredictable processes. In this work, we develop a model for the expected error in the simulation of ergodic, chaotic ODE…
Empirical economists are often deterred from the application of fixed effects binary choice models mainly for two reasons: the incidental parameter problem and the computational challenge even in moderately large panels. Using the example…
Safety-critical navigation applications require that estimation errors be reliably quantified and bounded. This can be challenging for linear dynamic systems if the process noise or measurement errors have uncertain time correlation. In…
The covariance matrix is a foundation in numerous statistical and machine-learning applications such as Principle Component Analysis, Correlation Heatmap, etc. However, missing values within datasets present a formidable obstacle to…
Qubit performance is often reported in terms of a variety of single-value metrics, each providing a facet of the underlying noise mechanism limiting performance. However, the value of these metrics may drift over long time-scales, and…
This paper presents a central limit theorem for a pre-averaged version of the realized covariance estimator for the quadratic covariation of a discretely observed semimartingale with noise. The semimartingale possibly has jumps, while the…
This paper proposes the online parameters identification of semi-empirical models of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC). The covariance of unknown measurement noise is also estimated simultaneously. The actual data are fed to Kalman…
Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments is a common problem in practice, for example, in studying average dose-response functions. Classical analyses typically assume that all confounders are fully observed, whereas in real-world…
The paper presents error estimates within a unified abstract framework for the analysis of FEM for boundary value problems with linear diffusion-convection-reaction equations and boundary conditions of mixed type. Since neither conformity…