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Decomposing a total causal effect into natural direct and indirect effects is central to revealing causal mechanisms. Conventional methods achieve the decomposition by specifying an outcome model as a linear function of the treatment, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-05 Guanglei Hong

Health risks from cigarette smoking -- the leading cause of preventable death in the United States -- can be substantially reduced by quitting. Although most smokers are motivated to quit, the majority of quit attempts fail. A number of…

Causal mediation analysis is increasingly abundant in biology, psychology, and epidemiology studies, etc. In particular, with the advent of the big data era, the issue of high-dimensional mediators is becoming more prevalent. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-10 Minghao Chen , Yingchun Zhou

Detecting influential features in non-linear and/or high-dimensional data is a challenging and increasingly important task in machine learning. Variable selection methods have thus been gaining much attention as well as post-selection…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Tobias Freidling , Benjamin Poignard , Héctor Climente-González , Makoto Yamada

Matching on covariates is a well-established framework for estimating causal effects in observational studies. The principal challenge stems from the often high-dimensional structure of the problem. Many methods have been introduced to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Florian Gunsilius , Yuliang Xu

Interventional effects have been proposed as a solution to the unidentifiability of natural (in)direct effects under mediator-outcome confounders affected by the exposure. Such confounders are an intrinsic characteristic of studies with…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-30 Iván Díaz , Nicholas Williams , Kara E. Rudolph

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Zihang Wang , Razieh Nabi , Benjamin B. Risk

Long-term causal inference has drawn increasing attention in many scientific domains. Existing methods mainly focus on estimating average long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational data and short-term experimental data.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Zeqin Yang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Suppose X and Y are binary exposure and outcome variables, and we have full knowledge of the distribution of Y, given application of X. From this we know the average causal effect of X on Y. We are now interested in assessing, for a case…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Philip Dawid , Macartan Humphreys , Monica Musio

This paper studies high-dimensional regression models with lasso when data is sampled under multi-way clustering. First, we establish convergence rates for the lasso and post-lasso estimators. Second, we propose a novel inference method…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-08-22 Harold D. Chiang , Yuya Sasaki

We develop a post-selection inference method for the Cox proportional hazards model with interval-censored data, which provides asymptotically valid p-values and confidence intervals conditional on the model selected by lasso. The method is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-02 Jianrui Zhang , Chenxi Li , Haolei Weng

We develop a general approach to valid inference after model selection. At the core of our framework is a result that characterizes the distribution of a post-selection estimator conditioned on the selection event. We specialize the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-04 Jason D. Lee , Dennis L. Sun , Yuekai Sun , Jonathan E. Taylor

An individual has been subjected to some exposure and has developed some outcome. Using data on similar individuals, we wish to evaluate, for this case, the probability that the outcome was in fact caused by the exposure. Even with the best…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-16 Rossella Murtas , Alexander Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

Progress in immunotherapy revolutionized the treatment landscape for advanced lung cancer, raising survival expectations beyond those that were historically anticipated with this disease. In the present study, we describe the methods for…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-25 Lizet Sanchez , Patricia Lorenzo-Luaces , Claudia Fonte , Agustin Lage

Recurrent events, including cardiovascular events, are commonly observed in biomedical studies. Researchers must understand the effects of various treatments on recurrent events and investigate the underlying mediation mechanisms by which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Yan-Lin Chen , Yan-Hong Chen , Pei-Fang Su , Huang-Tz Ou , An-Shun Tai

In clinical studies, the risk of the primary (terminal) event may be modified by intermediate events, resulting in semicompeting risks. To study the treatment effect on the terminal event mediated by the intermediate event, researchers wish…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Yuhao Deng , Rui Wang , Tao Zhang , Xiang Zhan

Interventional causal discovery seeks to identify causal relations by leveraging distributional changes introduced by interventions, even in the presence of latent confounders. Beyond the spurious dependencies induced by latent confounders,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Gongxu Luo , Loka Li , Guangyi Chen , Haoyue Dai , Kun Zhang

Unmeasured confounding, unethical exposure, and ill-defined interventions pose significant challenges to evaluating policy-relevant mediation estimands in medicine and public health. In observational studies involving harmful exposures, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Yang Bai , Yifan Cui , Baoluo Sun

The No Unmeasured Confounding Assumption is widely used to identify causal effects in observational studies. Recent work on proximal inference has provided alternative identification results that succeed even in the presence of unobserved…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-17 Benjamin Kompa , David R. Bellamy , Thomas Kolokotrones , James M. Robins , Andrew L. Beam

Pre-treatment selection or censoring (`selection on treatment') can occur when two treatment levels are compared ignoring the third option of neither treatment, in `censoring by death' settings where treatment is only defined for those who…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-20 Edward H. Kennedy , Steve Harris , Luke J. Keele