Related papers: Endogenous Crashes as Phase Transitions
Dynamical phase transitions (DPTs) characterize critical changes in system behavior occurring at finite times, providing a lens to study nonequilibrium phenomena beyond conventional equilibrium physics. While extensively studied in quantum…
Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical…
In this paper, we propose a new dynamical model to study the two-stage volatility evolution of stock market index after extreme events, and find that the volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay in the initial…
We perform an extended analysis of the distribution of drawdowns in the two leading exchange markets (US dollar against the Deutsmark and against the Yen), in the major world stock markets, in the U.S. and Japanese bond market and in the…
Prediction of events in financial markets is every investor's dream and, usually, wishful thinking. From a more general, economic and societal viewpoint, the identification of indicators for large events is highly desirable to assess…
We identify a robust structural signature of stock markets during exogenous shock events by analyzing collective return dynamics across G5 countries. Using Random Matrix Theory, we introduce the complexity gap, defined as the difference…
We study the appearance of first-order dynamical phase transitions (DPTs) as `intermittent' co-existing phases in the fluctuations of random walks on graphs. We show that the diverging time scale leading to critical behaviour is the waiting…
A major impact of globalization has been the information flow across the financial markets rendering them vulnerable to financial contagion. Research has focused on network analysis techniques to understand the extent and nature of such…
Interacting particle systems with many degrees of freedom may undergo phase transitions to sustain atypical fluctuations of dynamical observables such as the current or the activity. This leads in some cases to symmetry-broken space-time…
Synchronising a database of stock specific news with 5 years worth of order book data on 300 stocks, we show that abnormal price movements following news releases (exogenous) exhibit markedly different dynamical features from those arising…
Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…
Control landscape phase transitions (CLPTs) occur as abrupt changes in the cost function landscape upon varying a control parameter, and can be revealed by non-analytic points in statistical order parameters. A prime example are quantum…
This paper provides robust, new evidence on the causal drivers of market troughs. We demonstrate that conclusions about these triggers are critically sensitive to model specification, moving beyond restrictive linear models with a flexible…
We propose a picture of stock market crashes as critical points in a hierachical system with discrete scaling. The critical exponent is then complex, leading to log-periodic fluctuations in stock market indexes. We present ``experimental''…
Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or…
Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given…
Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…
This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily…
The study of the critical dynamics in complex systems is always interesting yet challenging. Here, we choose financial market as an example of a complex system, and do a comparative analyses of two stock markets - the S&P 500 (USA) and…
This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author…