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The bootstrap procedure has emerged as a general framework to construct prediction intervals for future observations in autoregressive time series models. Such models with outlying data points are standard in real data applications,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Ufuk Beyaztas , Han Lin Shang

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to an ad-hoc operating point,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-06 Jiri Navratil , Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Soumya Ghosh , Prasanna Sattigeri

Vital signs, such as heart rate and blood pressure, are critical indicators of patient health and are widely used in clinical monitoring and decision-making. While deep learning models have shown promise in forecasting these signals, their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Li Rong Wang , Thomas C. Henderson , Yew Soon Ong , Yih Yng Ng , Xiuyi Fan

Recent work proposed the computation of so-called PI-explanations of Naive Bayes Classifiers (NBCs). PI-explanations are subset-minimal sets of feature-value pairs that are sufficient for the prediction, and have been computed with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Joao Marques-Silva , Thomas Gerspacher , Martin C. Cooper , Alexey Ignatiev , Nina Narodytska

Prediction intervals offer an effective tool for quantifying the uncertainty of loads in distribution systems. The traditional central PIs cannot adapt well to skewed distributions, and their offline training fashion is vulnerable to…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-30 Yufan Zhang , Honglin Wen , Qiuwei Wu , Qian Ai

The purpose of this study is to introduce ANN-based software for the fast evaluation of rotordynamics in the context of robust and integrated design. It is based on a surrogate model made of ensembles of artificial neural networks running…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-08-29 Soheyl Massoudi , Jürg Schiffmann

Prediction-powered inference (PPI) is a method that improves statistical estimates based on limited human-labeled data. Specifically, PPI methods provide tighter confidence intervals by combining small amounts of human-labeled data with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-13 R. Alex Hofer , Joshua Maynez , Bhuwan Dhingra , Adam Fisch , Amir Globerson , William W. Cohen

Purpose: Electromagnetic Tracking (EMT) can potentially complement fluoroscopic navigation, reducing radiation exposure in a hybrid setting. Due to the susceptibility to external distortions, systematic error in EMT needs to be compensated…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-05-25 Henry Krumb , Sofie Hofmann , David Kügler , Ahmed Ghazy , Bernhard Dorweiler , Robert Schmitt , Georgios Sakas , Anirban Mukhopadhyay

Conventional predictive Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) commonly employ deterministic weight matrices; therefore, their prediction is a point estimate. Such a deterministic nature in ANNs causes the limitations of using ANNs for medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-02 Minhyeok Lee , Junhee Seok

Improving the robustness of neural nets in regression tasks is key to their application in multiple domains. Deep learning-based approaches aim to achieve this goal either by improving their prediction of specific values (i.e., point…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-22 Eli Simhayev , Gilad Katz , Lior Rokach

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Alexander Pritzel , Charles Blundell

The widespread adoption of quadrotors for diverse applications, from agriculture to public safety, necessitates an understanding of the aerodynamic disturbances they create. This paper introduces a computationally lightweight model for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-12-13 Leonard Bauersfeld , Koen Muller , Dominic Ziegler , Filippo Coletti , Davide Scaramuzza

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) and their variants have been very popular in recent years as algorithms for the numerical simulation of both forward and inverse problems for partial differential equations. This article aims to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-20 Tim De Ryck , Siddhartha Mishra

This work addresses object identification under known dynamics in unmanned aerial vehicle applications, where learning and classification are combined through a physics-informed residual neural network. The proposed framework leverages…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Nyi Nyi Aung , Neil Muralles , Adrian Stein

Agile flights of autonomous quadrotors in cluttered environments require constrained motion planning and control subject to translational and rotational dynamics. Traditional model-based methods typically demand complicated design and heavy…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-09-23 Yixiao Wang , Bingheng Wang , Shenning Zhang , Han Wei Sia , Lin Zhao

Uncertainty quantification, by means of confidence interval (CI) construction, has been a fundamental problem in statistics and also important in risk-aware decision-making. In this paper, we revisit the basic problem of CI construction,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-13 Shengyi He , Henry Lam

Uncertainty quantification is essential for scientific analysis, as it allows for the evaluation and interpretation of variability and reliability in complex systems and datasets. In their original form, multivariate statistical regression…

In the era of increasingly complex AI models for time series forecasting, progress is often measured by marginal improvements on benchmark leaderboards. However, this approach suffers from a fundamental flaw: standard evaluation metrics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Wanjin Feng , Yuan Yuan , Jingtao Ding , Yong Li

Backpropagation (BP) of errors is the backbone training algorithm for artificial neural networks (ANNs). It updates network weights through gradient descent to minimize a loss function representing the mismatch between predictions and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-13 Davide Casnici , Charlotte Frenkel , Justin Dauwels

Prediction error quantification in machine learning has been left out of most methodological investigations of neural networks, for both purely data-driven and physics-informed approaches. Beyond statistical investigations and generic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-19 Birgit Hillebrecht , Benjamin Unger