Related papers: Peaking into the Black-box: Prediction Intervals G…

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are popular tools for accomplishing many machine learning tasks, including predicting continuous outcomes. However, the general lack of confidence measures provided with ANN predictions limit their…

Accurately modeling quadrotor's system dynamics is critical for guaranteeing agile, safe, and stable navigation. The model needs to capture the system behavior in multiple flight regimes and operating conditions, including those producing…

Accurate dynamics modeling is essential for quadrotors to achieve precise trajectory tracking in various applications. Traditional physical knowledge-driven modeling methods face substantial limitations in unknown environments characterized…

Accurate conditional prediction in the regression setting plays an important role in many real-world problems. Typically, a point prediction often falls short since no attempt is made to quantify the prediction accuracy. Classically, under…

Neural networks are often regarded as "black boxes" due to their complex functions and numerous parameters, which poses significant challenges for interpretability. This study addresses these challenges by introducing methods to enhance the…

Quantifying and propagating modeling uncertainties is crucial for reliability analysis, robust optimization, and other model-based algorithmic processes in engineering design and control. Now, physics-informed machine learning (PIML)…

Performance modeling typically relies on two antithetic methodologies: white box models, which exploit knowledge on system's internals and capture its dynamics using analytical approaches, and black box techniques, which infer relations…

Flying quadrotors in tight formations is a challenging problem. It is known that in the near-field airflow of a quadrotor, the aerodynamic effects induced by the propellers are complex and difficult to characterize. Although machine…

Figuring out the right airfoil is a crucial step in the preliminary stage of any aerial vehicle design, as its shape directly affects the overall aerodynamic characteristics of the aircraft or rotorcraft. Besides being a measure of…

Various neural network architectures are used in many of the state-of-the-art approaches for real-time nonlinear state estimation in dynamical systems. With the ever-increasing incorporation of these data-driven models into the estimation…

The accuracy of dynamic modelling of unmanned aerial vehicles, specifically quadrotors, is gaining importance since strict conditionalities are imposed on rotorcraft control. The system identification plays a crucial role as an effective…

By generating prediction intervals (PIs) to quantify the uncertainty of each prediction in deep learning regression, the risk of wrong predictions can be effectively controlled. High-quality PIs need to be as narrow as possible, whilst…

Accurate uncertainty quantification is necessary to enhance the reliability of deep learning models in real-world applications. In the case of regression tasks, prediction intervals (PIs) should be provided along with the deterministic…

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been successfully used in various nuclear engineering applications, such as predicting reactor physics parameters within reasonable time and with a high level of accuracy. Despite this success, they…

We address one of the main challenges towards autonomous quadrotor flight in complex environments, which is flight through narrow gaps. While previous works relied on off-board localization systems or on accurate prior knowledge of the gap…

Rigorous error estimation is a fundamental topic in numerical analysis. With the increasing use of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for solving partial differential equations, several approaches have been developed to quantify the…

This study explores modeling and control for quadrotor acrobatics, focusing on executing flip maneuvers. Flips are an elegant way to deliver sensor probes into no-fly or hazardous zones, like volcanic vents. Successful flips require…

We propose a simple and efficient approach to generate a prediction intervals (PI) for approximated and forecasted trends. Our method leverages a weighted asymmetric loss function to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PI, with the…

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

This paper introduces a novel, computationally-efficient algorithm for predictive inference (PI) that requires no distributional assumptions on the data and can be computed faster than existing bootstrap-type methods for neural networks.…