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This paper presents a novel approach for propagating uncertainties in dynamical systems building on high-order Taylor expansions of the flow and moment-generating functions (MGFs). Unlike prior methods that focus on Gaussian distributions,…

Space Physics · Physics 2025-04-08 Giacomo Acciarini , Nicola Baresi , David Lloyd , Dario Izzo

The orbital dynamics of a spacecraft orbiting around irregular small celestial bodies is a challenging problem. Difficulties to model the gravity field of these bodies arise from the poor knowledge of the exact shape as observed from the…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-07-26 L. B. T. Santos , L. O. Marchi , P. A. Sousa-Silva , D. M. Sanchez , S. Aljbaae , A. F. B. A. Prado

Asteroids can be eclipsed by other bodies in the Solar System, but no direct observation of an asteroid eclipse has been reported to date. We describe a statistical method to predict an eclipse for an asteroid based on the analysis of the…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 P. Tricarico , N. C. Hearn , G. Lake , G. Worthey

On April 13, 2029, near-Earth asteroid (NEA) (99942) Apophis will pass at a distance of 6 Earth radii from Earth. This event will provide researchers with a unique opportunity to study the effects of tidal forces experienced by an asteroid…

In this paper, we consider discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems with additive process noise in which both the initial state and noise distributions are uncertain. Our goal is to quantify how the uncertainty in these…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-19 Steven Adams , Eduardo Figueiredo , Luca Laurenti

Aerocapture uses atmospheric drag to decelerate spacecraft and achieve orbit insertion. One of the significant risks associated with aerocapture is the uncertainty in the atmospheric density, particularly for outer planets. The paper…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-17 Athul Pradeepkumar Girija

In this article, theory-based analytical methodologies of astrophysics employed in the modern era are suitably operated alongside a test research-grade telescope to image and determine the orbit of a near-earth asteroid from original…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2021-09-16 Muhammad Farae , Cameron Woo , Anka Hu

Uncertainty propagation in non-linear dynamical systems has become a key problem in various fields including control theory and machine learning. In this work we focus on discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems. We present a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-12 Eduardo Figueiredo , Andrea Patane , Morteza Lahijanian , Luca Laurenti

The knowledge of the orbit or the ephemeris uncertainty of asteroid presents a particular interest for various purposes. These quantities are for instance useful for recovering asteroids, for identifying lost asteroids or for planning…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-15 Josselin Desmars , David Bancelin , Daniel Hestroffer , William Thuillot

Exoplanetary systems hosting multiple low-mass planets are thought to have experienced dynamical instability, during which planet-planet collisions and mergers occur; these collisions can impart substantial amount of angular momentum to the…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-15 Dieran Wang , Jiaru Li , Dong Lai

Didymos and Dimorphos are primary and secondary, respectively, asteroids who compose a binary system that make up the set of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs). They are targets of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), the first test…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-07-19 R. Machado Oliveira , O. C. Winter , R. Sfair , G. Valvano , T. S. Moura , G. Borderes-Motta

In this paper, an extremely accurate numerical algorithm, namely the "clean numerical simulation" (CNS), is proposed to accurately simulate the propagation of micro-level inherent physical uncertainty of chaotic dynamic systems. The chaotic…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2012-12-27 S. J. Liao

Many quantum technologies rely on high-precision dynamics, which raises the question of how these are influenced by the experimental uncertainties that are always present in real-life settings. A standard approach in the literature to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-04-27 Mogens Dalgaard , Carrie A. Weidner , Felix Motzoi

Deflection missions to near-Earth asteroids will encounter non-negligible uncertainties in the physical and orbital parameters of the target object. In order to reliably assess future impact threat mitigation operations such uncertainties…

A multifidelity method for the nonlinear propagation of uncertainties in the presence of stochastic accelerations is presented. The proposed algorithm treats the uncertainty propagation (UP) problem by separating the propagation of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Alberto Fossà , Roberto Armellin , Emmanuel Delande , Francesco Sanfedino

We introduce NEOviz, an interactive visualization system designed to assist planetary defense experts in the visual analysis of the movements of near-Earth objects in the Solar System that might prove hazardous to Earth. Asteroids are often…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-11-06 Fangfei Lan , Malin Ejdbo , Joachim Moeyens , Bei Wang , Anders Ynnerman , Alexander Bock

For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space situational awareness activities such as the satellite conjunction…

Space Physics · Physics 2022-11-01 Smriti Nandan Paul , Richard J. Licata , Piyush M. Mehta

Many problems in navigation and tracking require increasingly accurate characterizations of the evolution of uncertainty in nonlinear systems. Nonlinear uncertainty propagation approaches based on Gaussian mixture density approximations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-30 Jackson Kulik , Keith A. LeGrand

Estimating the probability of collision between spacecraft is crucial for risk management and collision-avoidance strategies. Current methods often rely on Gaussian assumptions and simplifications, which can be inaccurate in highly…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-22 Théo Verhelst , Giacomo Acciarini , Dario Izzo , Francesco Biscani

Numerical continuation techniques are powerful tools that have been extensively used to identify particular solutions of nonlinear dynamical systems and enable trajectory design in chaotic astrodynamics problems such as the Circular…

Space Physics · Physics 2024-05-30 Giacomo Acciarini , Nicola Baresi , David J. B. Lloyd , Dario Izzo