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Confirmation bias and peer pressure both have substantial impacts on the formation of collective decisions. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to study how the interplay between these two mechanisms affects public opinion evolution.…
Search engine results depend not only on the algorithms but also on how users interact with them. However, factors affecting the selection of a search query remain understudied. Using a representative survey of Swiss citizens before a round…
This article presents evidence based on a panel of 35 countries over the past 30 years that the Phillips curve relation holds for food inflation. That is, broader economic overheating does push up the food component of the CPI in a…
Extreme polarization can undermine democracy by making compromise impossible and transforming politics into a zero-sum game. Ideological polarization - the extent to which political views are widely dispersed - is already strong among…
Extreme political shocks may reshape economies not only through contemporaneous disruption but by altering beliefs about the distribution of future states. We study how such belief ruptures affect the cost of capital, expectations, and…
Consumer spending accounts for a large fraction of the US economic activity. Increasingly, consumer activity is moving to the web, where digital traces of shopping and purchases provide valuable data about consumer behavior. We analyze…
When a population is engaged in successive prisoner's dilemmas, indirect reciprocity through reputation fosters cooperation through the emergence of moral and action rules. A simplified model has recently been proposed where individuals…
It is argued that the order of the analytic expressions for the calculation of the primordial perturbations from inflation exerts a strong influence upon the results of the analysis of observables dynamics based on these expressions and,…
We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2019. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate…
Studies of the initial conditions for inflation have conflicting predictions from exponential suppression to inevitability. At the level of phase space, this conflict arises from the competing intuitions of CPT invariance and…
Intertemporal choices involve making decisions that require weighing the costs in the present against the benefits in the future. One specific type of intertemporal choice is the decision between purchasing an individual item or opting for…
We evaluate the tendency for different voting methods to promote political compromise and reduce tensions in a society by using computer simulations to determine which voters candidates are incentivized to appeal to. We find that Instant…
The existence of involuntary unemployment advocated by J. M. Keynes is a very important problem of the modern economic theory. Using a three-generations overlapping generations model, we show that the existence of involuntary unemployment…
The median voter theorem has long been the default model of voter behavior and candidate choice. While contemporary work on the distribution of political opinion has emphasized polarization and an increasing gap between the "left" and the…
This paper investigates whether ideological indoctrination by living in a communist regime relates to low economic performance in a market economy. We recruit North Korean refugees and measure their implicit bias against South Korea by…
This paper studies inflation in small open economies with production networks. I show that the production network alters the elasticity of the consumer price index (CPI) to changes in sectoral technology, factor prices, and import prices.…
This paper investigates the relationship between economic media sentiment and individuals' expetations and perceptions about economic conditions. We test if economic media sentiment Granger-causes individuals' expectations and opinions…
We propose a computational framework for modeling opinion dynamics in electoral competitions that combines two realistic features: voter memory and exogenous shocks. The population is represented by a fully-connected network of agents, each…
A model of the opinion dynamics underlying the political decision is proposed. The analysis is restricted to a bipolar scheme with a possible third political area. The interaction among voters is local but the final decision strongly…
Social inflation, which is the rise in liability claim costs beyond general economic inflation, has become a major concern for insurers and reinsurers, yet it is difficult to quantify because litigation outcomes are heavy-tailed and the mix…