Related papers: Accurate deep learning-based filtering for chaotic…
Data assimilation (DA) improves prediction of chaotic systems by combining model forecasts with sparse, noisy observations. Many DA methods are inherently probabilistic, but accurate probabilistic DA is often computationally expensive…
State estimation that combines observational data with mathematical models is central to many applications and is commonly addressed through filtering methods, such as ensemble Kalman filters. In this article, we examine the signal-tracking…
Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on…
We consider the problem of data-assisted forecasting of chaotic dynamical systems when the available data is in the form of noisy partial measurements of the past and present state of the dynamical system. Recently there have been several…
In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been proposed to devise data-driven parametrisations of unresolved processes in dynamical numerical models. In most cases, the ML training leverages high-resolution simulations to provide a dense,…
Data assimilation, consisting in the combination of a dynamical model with a set of noisy and incomplete observations in order to infer the state of a system over time, involves uncertainty in most settings. Building upon an existing…
The goal of many applications in energy and transport sectors is to control turbulent flows. However, because of chaotic dynamics and high dimensionality, the control of turbulent flows is exceedingly difficult. Model-free reinforcement…
Prediction of chaotic systems relies on a floating fusion of sensor data (observations) with a numerical model to decide on a good system trajectory and to compensate nonlinear feedback effects. Ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) is a…
Performing Data Assimilation (DA) at a low cost is of prime concern in Earth system modeling, particularly at the time of big data where huge quantities of observations are available. Capitalizing on the ability of Neural Networks…
Discovering the underlying dynamics of complex systems from data is an important practical topic. Constrained optimization algorithms are widely utilized and lead to many successes. Yet, such purely data-driven methods may bring about…
The performance of ensemble-based data assimilation techniques that estimate the state of a dynamical system from partial observations depends crucially on the prescribed uncertainty of the model dynamics and of the observations. These are…
Ensemble forecast based on physics-informed models is one of the most widely used forecast algorithms for complex turbulent systems. A major difficulty in such a method is the model error that is ubiquitous in practice. Data-driven machine…
It was recently found with the aid of machine learning that for a variety of toy data assimilation systems with chaotic Lorenz-96 model it is possible to achieve a nearly-optimal data assimilation without carrying the state error covariance…
Fitting nonlinear dynamical models to sparse and noisy observations is fundamentally challenging. Identifying dynamics requires data assimilation (DA) to estimate system states, but DA requires an accurate dynamical model. To break this…
Uncertainty-aware deep learning (DL) models recently gained attention in fault diagnosis as a way to promote the reliable detection of faults when out-of-distribution (OOD) data arise from unseen faults (epistemic uncertainty) or the…
Accurate data assimilation (DA) for systems with piecewise-smooth or discontinuous state variables remains a significant challenge, as conventional covariance-based ensemble Kalman filter approaches often fail to effectively balance…
A common problem in time series analysis is to predict dynamics with only scalar or partial observations of the underlying dynamical system. For data on a smooth compact manifold, Takens theorem proves a time delayed embedding of the…
Data assimilation (DA) provides a general framework for estimation in dynamical systems based on the concepts of Bayesian inference. This constitutes a common basis for the different linear and nonlinear filtering and smoothing techniques…
Data assimilation (DA) enables hydrologic models to update their internal states using near-real-time observations for more accurate forecasts. With deep neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM), using either lagged observations…
Data-driven methods have demonstrated strong predictive capabilities in fluid mechanics, yet most current applications still focus on simplified configurations, often characterised by statistical stationarity or limited temporal…