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This paper studies choice situations in which a decision maker can choose multiple alternatives. Given a menu of available options, the decision maker selects a subset of the menu with certain probabilities. We employ an axiomatic approach…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-25 Tri Phu Vu

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

When the data do not conform to the hypothesis of a known sampling-variance, the fitting of a constant to a set of measured values is a long debated problem. Given the data, fitting would require to find what measurand value is the most…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-07-21 Giovanni Mana , Enrico Massa , Maria Predescu

Counterfactual utilities evaluate decisions not only by the realized outcome under a given decision, but also by the counterfactual outcomes that would arise under alternative decisions. By generalizing standard utility frameworks, they…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-08 Benedikt Koch , Kosuke Imai , Tomasz Strzalecki

An analyst observes an agent take a sequence of actions. The analyst does not have access to the agent's information and ponders whether the observed actions could be justified through a rational Bayesian model with a known utility…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-04-08 Henrique de Oliveira , Rohit Lamba

This paper shows how we can combine logical representations of actions and decision theory in such a manner that seems natural for both. In particular we assume an axiomatization of the domain in terms of situation calculus, using what is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 David L. Poole

We study the testable implications of models of dynamically inconsistent choices when planned choices are unobservable, and thus only "on path" data is available. First, we discuss the approach in Blow, Browning and Crawford (2021), who…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-07-28 Federico Echenique , Gerelt Tserenjigmid

Choice functions constitute a simple, direct and very general mathematical framework for modelling choice under uncertainty. In particular, they are able to represent the set-valued choices that typically arise from applying decision rules…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-06-05 Jasper De Bock , Gert de Cooman

Preference-based many-objective optimization faces two obstacles: an expanding space of trade-offs and heterogeneous, context-dependent human value structures. Towards this, we propose a Bayesian framework that learns a small set of latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Manisha Dubey , Sebastiaan De Peuter , Wanrong Wang , Samuel Kaski

Inthispaperwedescribeaconcept-wisemulti-preferencesemantics for description logic which has its root in the preferential approach for modeling defeasible reasoning in knowledge representation. We argue that this proposal, beside satisfying…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-09-03 Laura Giordano , Valentina Gliozzi , Daniele Theseider Dupré

This paper uncovers tight bounds on the number of preferences permissible in identified random utility models. We show that as the number of alternatives in a discrete choice model becomes large, the fraction of preferences admissible in an…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-12-03 Christopher P. Chambers , Christopher Turansick

The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Freddie Bickford Smith , Jannik Kossen , Eleanor Trollope , Mark van der Wilk , Adam Foster , Tom Rainforth

Ranking data arises in a wide variety of application areas but remains difficult to model, learn from, and predict. Datasets often exhibit multimodality, intransitivity, or incomplete rankings---particularly when generated by humans---yet…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-29 Stephen Ragain , Johan Ugander

A model for decision making that generalizes Expected Utility Maximization is presented. This model, Expected Qualitative Utility Maximization, encompasses the Maximin criterion. It relaxes both the Independence and the Continuity…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Daniel Lehmann

Literature involving preferences of artificial agents or human beings often assume their preferences can be represented using a complete transitive binary relation. Much has been written however on different models of preferences. We review…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-01-17 Olivier Cailloux , Sébastien Destercke

We introduce a new approach to modeling uncertainty based on plausibility measures. This approach is easily seen to generalize other approaches to modeling uncertainty, such as probability measures, belief functions, and possibility…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-08-31 Nir Friedman , Joseph Y. Halpern

Reward modelling from preference data is a crucial step in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values, requiring robust generalisation to novel prompt-response pairs. In this work, we propose to frame this problem in a causal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Katarzyna Kobalczyk , Mihaela van der Schaar

We offer a rationalization of the weak generalized axiom of revealed preference (WGARP) for both finite and infinite data sets of consumer choice. We call it maximin rationalization, in which each pairwise choice is associated with a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2019-06-04 Victor H. Aguiar , Per Hjertstrand , Roberto Serrano

We present an extension-based approach for computing and verifying preferences in an abstract argumentation system. Although numerous argumentation semantics have been developed previously for identifying acceptable sets of arguments from…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-27 Quratul-ain Mahesar , Nir Oren , Wamberto W. Vasconcelos

Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Elan Rosenfeld , Pradeep Ravikumar , Andrej Risteski