Related papers: Quantifying intra-regime weather variability for e…
Weather regimes provide a useful framework for describing large-scale atmospheric variability and its impacts on regional weather. Despite extensive study, there is still no universally accepted definition or method for identifying weather…
The low frequency variability of the extratropical atmosphere involves hemispheric-scale recurring, often persistent, states known as teleconnection patterns or regimes, which can have profound impact on predictability on intra-seasonal and…
A single-column model is used to investigate regime transitions within the stable atmospheric boundary layer, focusing on the role of small-scale fluctuations in wind and temperature dynamics and of turbulence intermittency as triggers for…
Reliable forecasts of quasi-stationary, recurrent, and persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (weather regimes) are crucial for various socio-economic sectors. Despite steady progress, probabilistic weather regime…
Near-surface atmospheric conditions can differ sharply over tens to hundreds of meters due to land cover and topography, yet this variability is absent from current weather analyses and forecasts. It is unclear whether such meter-scale…
Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…
Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…
Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a…
Certain Weather Regimes (WR) are associated with a higher risk of energy shortages, i.e. Blocking regimes for European winters. However, there are many uncertainties tied to the implementation of WRs and associated risks in the energy…
The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…
The low-frequency variability of the mid-latitude atmosphere involves complex nonlinear and chaotic dynamical processes posing predictability challenges. It is characterized by sporadically recurring, often long-lived patterns of…
In Central Europe, the occurrence of different weather regimes (WRs) plays a major role in spatiotemporal temperature and precipitation patterns. In the context of increasingly extreme summers, this study focuses on European summer WRs…
We present a non-linear AI-model designed to reconstruct monthly mean anomalies of the European temperature and precipitation based on the Euro-Atlantic Weather regimes (WR) indices. WR represent recurrent, quasi-stationary, and persistent…
We study various time series of surface layer wind velocity at different locations and provide evidences for the intermittent nature of the wind fluctuations in mesoscale range. By means of the magnitude covariance analysis, which is shown…
Weather regimes are recurrent and persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that modulate the occurrence of local impact variables such as extreme precipitation. In their capacity as mediators between long-range…
Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal…
Climate projection uncertainty can be partitioned into model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and internal variability. Here, we investigate the different sources of uncertainty in the projected frequencies of daily maximum temperature and…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…
Climate models are often affected by long-term drift that is revealed by the evolution of global variables such as the ocean temperature or the surface air temperature. This spurious trend reduces the fidelity to initial conditions and has…