Related papers: Forecasting High Frequency Order Flow Imbalance
Intermittent demand forecasting is a ubiquitous and challenging problem in production systems and supply chain management. In recent years, there has been a growing focus on developing forecasting approaches for intermittent demand from…
This paper presents an overview of information-based asset pricing. In this approach, an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. The market is assumed to have access to "partial" information about future cash flows. Each cash flow is…
We investigate the use of the normalized imbalance between option volumes corresponding to positive and negative market views, as a predictor for directional price movements in the spot market. Via a nonlinear analysis, and using a…
We develop a behavioral model for liquidity and volatility based on empirical regularities in trading order flow in the London Stock Exchange. This can be viewed as a very simple agent based model in which all components of the model are…
We present a Hawkes model approach to foreign exchange market in which the high frequency price dynamics is affected by a self exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By…
Optimal power flow (OPF) is one of the most important optimization problems in the energy industry. In its simplest form, OPF attempts to find the optimal power that the generators within the grid have to produce to satisfy a given demand.…
This paper considers distribution networks featuring inverter-interfaced distributed energy resources, and develops distributed feedback controllers that continuously drive the inverter output powers to solutions of AC optimal power flow…
Trade executions for major stocks come in bursts of activity, which can be partly attributed to the presence of self- and mutual excitations endogenous to the system. In this paper, we study transaction reports for five FTSE 100 stocks. We…
This paper presents a convex, multi-period, AC-feasible Optimal Power Flow (OPF) framework that robustly dispatches flexible demand-side resources in unbalanced distribution feeders against uncertainty in very-short timescale solar…
We present a modified version of the non parametric Hawkes kernel estimation procedure studied in arXiv:1401.0903 that is adapted to slowly decreasing kernels. We show on numerical simulations involving a reasonable number of events that…
We present a novel factor analysis method that can be applied to the discovery of common factors shared among trajectories in multivariate time series data. These factors satisfy a precedence-ordering property: certain factors are recruited…
This paper considers the problem of controlling inverter-interfaced distributed energy resources (DERs) in a distribution grid to solve an AC optimal power flow (OPF) problem in real time. The AC OPF includes voltage constraints, and seeks…
We propose a general non-linear order book model that is built from the individual behaviours of the agents. Our framework encompasses Markovian and Hawkes based models. Under mild assumptions, we prove original results on the ergodicity…
Optimisation and simulation models for the design and operation of grid-connected distributed energy systems (DES) often exclude the inherent nonlinearities related to power flow and generation and storage units, to maintain an…
Conventional optimal power flow (OPF) solvers assume full observability of the involved system states. However, in practice, there is a lack of reliable system monitoring devices in the distribution networks. To close the gap between the…
High-speed computerized trading, often called "high-frequency trading" (HFT), has increased dramatically in financial markets over the last decade. In the US and Europe, it now accounts for nearly one-half of all trades. Although evidence…
At the ultra high frequency level, the notion of price of an asset is very ambiguous. Indeed, many different prices can be defined (last traded price, best bid price, mid price,...). Thus, in practice, market participants face the problem…
We propose a limit order book (LOB) model with dynamics that account for both the impact of the most recent order and the shape of the LOB. We present an empirical analysis showing that the type of the last order significantly alters the…
In this paper, we introduce a parametrized family of prices derived from the Maximum Entropy Principle. The price is obtained from the distribution that minimizes bias, given the bid and ask volume imbalance at the top of the order book.…
We test three common information criteria (IC) for selecting the order of a Hawkes process with an intensity kernel that can be expressed as a mixture of exponential terms. These processes find application in high-frequency financial data…