Related papers: Forecasting High Frequency Order Flow Imbalance
Intra-day price variations in financial markets are driven by the sequence of orders, called the order flow, that is submitted at high frequency by traders. This paper introduces a novel application of the Sequence Generative Adversarial…
A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of…
I present an overview of some recent advancements on the empirical analysis and theoretical modeling of the process of price formation in financial markets as the result of the arrival of orders in a limit order book exchange. After…
We propose a modeling framework for the dynamics of a reduced form order book in event time and based on event sizes. Our framework for the order book is influenced by [9], but compared to [9] we allow the best bid ask spread to be larger…
In the last decade, machine learning-based approaches became capable of performing a wide range of complex tasks sometimes better than humans, demanding a fraction of the time. Such an advance is partially due to the exponential growth in…
Deregulated energy markets, demand forecasting, and the continuously increasing share of renewable energy sources call---among others---for a structured consideration of uncertainties in optimal power flow problems. The main challenge is to…
The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…
We provide an explicit characterization of the optimal market making strategy in a discrete-time Limit Order Book (LOB). In our model, the number of filled orders during each period depends linearly on the distance between the fundamental…
The Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problem is pivotal for power system operations, guiding generator output and power distribution to meet demand at minimized costs, while adhering to physical and engineering constraints. The integration of…
We introduce a Cox-type model for relative intensities of orders flows in a limit order book. The model assumes that all intensities share a common baseline intensity, which may for example represent the global market activity. Parameters…
We study the interaction between returns and order flow imbalances in the S&P 500 E-mini futures market using a structural VAR model identified through heteroskedasticity. The model is estimated at one-second frequency for each 15-minute…
Turbulent flows are chaotic and unsteady, but their statistical distribution converges to a statistical steady state. Engineering quantities of interest typically take the form of time-average statistics such as $ \frac{1}{t} \int_0^t f (…
The Tick library allows researchers in market microstructure to simulate and learn Hawkes process in high-frequency data, with optimized parametric and non-parametric learners. But one challenge is to take into account the correct causality…
The massive integration of distributed energy resources changes the operational demands of the electric power distribution system, motivating optimization-based approaches. The added computational complexities of the resulting optimal power…
We propose a data-driven method to solve a stochastic optimal power flow (OPF) problem based on limited information about forecast error distributions. The objective is to determine power schedules for controllable devices in a power…
Accurately forecasting the direction of financial returns poses a formidable challenge, given the inherent unpredictability of financial time series. The task becomes even more arduous when applied to cryptocurrency returns, given the…
We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases with a…
This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self-exciting flexible residual point process. High-frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy-tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge…
The Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problem is a fundamental building block for the optimization of electrical power systems. It is nonlinear and nonconvex and computes the generator setpoints for power and voltage, given a set of load demands. It…
High frequency financial data is burdened by a level of randomness that is unavoidable and obfuscates the task of modelling. This idea is reflected in the intraday evolution of limit orders book data for many financial assets and suggests…