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Weather forecasting plays a vital role in numerous sectors, but accurately capturing the complex dynamics of weather systems remains a challenge for traditional statistical models. Apart from Auto Regressive time forecasting models like…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Anuvab Sen , Arul Rhik Mazumder , Dibyarup Dutta , Udayon Sen , Pathikrit Syam , Sandipan Dhar

There exist many methods for sensitivity analysis readily available to the practitioner. While each seeks to help the modeler answer the same general question -- How do sources of uncertainty or changes in the model inputs relate to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-16 Devin Francom , Abigael Nachtsheim

This paper introduces a practical sampling method for training surrogate models in the context of uncertainty propagation. We propose a heuristic method to uniformly draw samples within highest density regions of the density given by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Jocelyn Minini , Micha Wasem

The transition of the power grid requires new technologies and methodologies, which can only be developed and tested in simulations. Especially larger simulation setups with many levels of detail can become quite slow. Therefore, the number…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-06-23 Stephan Balduin , Tom Westermann , Erika Puiutta

Numerical models of the ocean and ice sheets are crucial for understanding and simulating the impact of greenhouse gases on the global climate. Oceanic processes affect phenomena such as hurricanes, extreme precipitation, and droughts.…

Porous media processes involve various physical phenomena such as mechanical deformation, transport, and fluid flow. Accurate simulations must capture the strong couplings between these phenomena. Choosing an efficient solver for the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-14 Yury Zabegaev , Eirik Keilegavlen , Einar Iversen , Inga Berre

Model selection requires repeatedly evaluating models on a given dataset and measuring their relative performances. In modern applications of machine learning, the models being considered are increasingly more expensive to evaluate and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-21 Anant Raj , Cameron Musco , Lester Mackey , Nicolo Fusi

Although reinforcement learning methods can achieve impressive results in simulation, the real world presents two major challenges: generating samples is exceedingly expensive, and unexpected perturbations or unseen situations cause…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-01 Anusha Nagabandi , Ignasi Clavera , Simin Liu , Ronald S. Fearing , Pieter Abbeel , Sergey Levine , Chelsea Finn

To find efficient screening methods for high dimensional linear regression models, this paper studies the relationship between model fitting and screening performance. Under a sparsity assumption, we show that a subset that includes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-20 Shifeng Xiong

This paper presents a novel methodology for tractably solving optimal control and offline reinforcement learning problems for high-dimensional systems. This work is motivated by the ongoing challenges of safety, computation, and optimality…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-06 Aaron Kandel , Saehong Park , Scott Moura

Machine learning surrogates are increasingly used in engineering to accelerate costly simulations, yet distribution shifts between training and deployment often cause severe performance degradation (e.g., unseen geometries or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Anna Zimmel , Paul Setinek , Gianluca Galletti , Johannes Brandstetter , Werner Zellinger

Hyperparameter optimization is very frequently employed in machine learning. However, an optimization of a large space of parameters could result in overfitting of models. In recent studies on solubility prediction the authors collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Igor V. Tetko , Ruud van Deursen , Guillaume Godin

Sample efficiency is one of the key factors when applying policy search to real-world problems. In recent years, Bayesian Optimization (BO) has become prominent in the field of robotics due to its sample efficiency and little prior…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-11-19 Lukas P. Fröhlich , Melanie N. Zeilinger , Edgar D. Klenske

A meta-model (or a surrogate model) is the modern name for what was traditionally called a response surface. It is intended to mimic the behaviour of a computational model M (e.g. a finite element model in mechanics) while being inexpensive…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-12 Bruno Sudret

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has established itself as the primary methodology for constrained control, enabling autonomy across diverse applications. While model fidelity is crucial in MPC, solving the corresponding optimization problem…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-23 Lukas Schroth , Daniel Morton , Amon Lahr , Daniele Gammelli , Andrea Carron , Marco Pavone

In this paper, we consider the problem of parameter sensitivity in models of complex dynamical systems through the lens of information geometry. We calculate the sensitivity of model behavior to variations in parameters. In most cases,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-07-17 Benjamin L. Francis , Mark K. Transtrum

This paper presents a novel methodology that uses surrogate models in the form of neural networks to reduce the computation time of simulation-based optimization of a reference trajectory. Simulation-based optimization is necessary when…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-31 Evelyn Ruff , Rebecca Russell , Matthew Stoeckle , Piero Miotto , Jonathan P. How

Many real-world systems are modelled using complex ordinary differential equations (ODEs). However, the dimensionality of these systems can make them challenging to analyze. Dimensionality reduction techniques like Proper Orthogonal…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Abhishek Ajayakumar , Soumyendu Raha

We propose an active sampling flow, with the use-case of simulating the impact of combined variations on analog circuits. In such a context, given the large number of parameters, it is difficult to fit a surrogate model and to efficiently…

Models of physics beyond the Standard Model often contain a large number of parameters. These form a high-dimensional space that is computationally intractable to fully explore. Experimental constraints project onto a subspace of viable…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2022-01-05 Jacob Hollingsworth , Michael Ratz , Philip Tanedo , Daniel Whiteson
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