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In complex and unknown processes, global models are initially generated over the entire experimental space but often fail to provide accurate predictions in local areas. A common approach is to use local models, which requires partitioning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Dominik Polke , Tim Kösters , Elmar Ahle , Dirk Söffker

This work aims efficiently estimating the posterior distribution of kinetic parameters for dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) imaging given a measurement of time of activity curve. Considering the inherent information loss from…

Medical Physics · Physics 2023-10-25 Xiaofeng Liu , Thibault Marin , Tiss Amal , Jonghye Woo , Georges El Fakhri , Jinsong Ouyang

Uncertainty quantification seeks to provide a quantitative means to understand complex systems that are impacted by parametric uncertainty. The polynomial chaos method is a computational approach to solve stochastic partial differential…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-09-27 Melvin Leok , Gautam Wilkins

Structural damage due to excessive loading or environmental degradation typically occurs in localized areas in the absence of collapse. This prior information about the spatial sparseness of structural damage is exploited here by a…

Applications · Statistics 2015-03-29 Yong Huang , James L. Beck

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

As uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of complex models grows ever more important, the difficulty of their timely realizations highlights a need for more efficient numerical operations. Non-intrusive Polynomial Chaos methods are highly…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-04-14 Konstantin Weise , Erik Müller , Lucas Poßner , Thomas R. Knösche

We consider the problem of estimating a sparse precision matrix of a multivariate Gaussian distribution, including the case where the dimension $p$ is large. Gaussian graphical models provide an important tool in describing conditional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-08 Sayantan Banerjee , Subhashis Ghosal

A wide variety of phenomena of engineering and scientific interest are of a continuous-time nature and can be modeled by stochastic differential equations (SDEs), which represent the evolution of the uncertainty in the states of a system.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-07 Dimas Abreu Dutra

As non-institutive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) techniques have gained growing popularity among researchers, we here provide a comprehensive review of major sampling strategies for the least squares based PCE. Traditional sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2018-02-14 Mohammad Hadigol , Alireza Doostan

Bayesian hierarchical models can provide efficient algorithms for finding sparse solutions to ill-posed inverse problems. The models typically comprise a conditionally Gaussian prior model for the unknown which is augmented by a generalized…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-01-09 Jonathan Lindbloom , Jan Glaubitz , Anne Gelb

We consider the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a finite mixture model from independent order statistics arising from imperfect ranked set sampling designs. As a cost-effective method, ranked set sampling enables us to incorporate…

An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-03-14 Ryo Tamura , Koji Hukushima

Software engineers often have to estimate the performance of a software system before having full knowledge of the system parameters, such as workload and operational profile. These uncertain parameters inevitably affect the accuracy of…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2018-01-16 Aldeida Aleti , Catia Trubiani , André van Hoorn , Pooyan Jamshidi

Mixture autoregressive (MAR) models provide a flexible way to model time series with predictive distributions which depend on the recent history of the process and are able to accommodate asymmetry and multimodality. Bayesian inference for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-22 Davide Ravagli , Georgi N. Boshnakov

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-12 Matteo Mogliani , Anna Simoni

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-12 Tiangang Cui , Colin Fox , Michael J O'Sullivan

The maximum likelihood (ML) and maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation techniques are widely used to address the direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation problems, an important topic in sensor array processing. Conventionally the ML estimators…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-31 Xin Zhang , Mohammed Nabil El Korso , Marius Pesavento

We propose a novel greedy algorithm for the support recovery of a sparse signal from a small number of noisy measurements. In the proposed method, a new support index is identified for each iteration based on bit-wise maximum a posteriori…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-10-29 J. Chae , S. -N. Hong

Several scenarios require the optimization of non-convex black-box functions, that are noisy expensive to evaluate functions with unknown analytical expression, whose gradients are hence not accessible. For example, the hyper-parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán

In this article we propose a maximal a posteriori (MAP) criterion for model selection in the motif discovery problem and investigate conditions under which the MAP asymptotically gives a correct prediction of model size. We also investigate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Mayetri Gupta