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A large class of decision making under uncertainty problems can be described via Markov decision processes (MDPs) or partially observable MDPs (POMDPs), with application to artificial intelligence and operations research, among others.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-09-10 Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Ugo Rosolia , Michel D. Ingham , Richard M. Murray , Aaron D. Ames

In this paper, we show how a simulated Markov decision process (MDP) built by the so-called \emph{baseline} policies, can be used to compute a different policy, namely the \emph{simulated optimal} policy, for which the performance of this…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-10-13 Yinlam Chow , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh

We investigate the problem of establishing finite-time probabilistic safety guarantees for discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems subject to unknown disturbance distributions, using barrier certificate methods. Our approach develops a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-03 Taoran Wu , Dominik Wagner , C. -H. Luke Ong , Bai Xue

We study the problem of policy synthesis for uncertain partially observable Markov decision processes (uPOMDPs). The transition probability function of uPOMDPs is only known to belong to a so-called uncertainty set, for instance in the form…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-24 Marnix Suilen , Nils Jansen , Murat Cubuktepe , Ufuk Topcu

We study the evaluation of a policy under best- and worst-case perturbations to a Markov decision process (MDP), using transition observations from the original MDP, whether they are generated under the same or a different policy. This is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Andrew Bennett , Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu , Wen Sun , Kaiwen Wang

Controllers for dynamical systems that operate in safety-critical settings must account for stochastic disturbances. Such disturbances are often modeled as process noise in a dynamical system, and common assumptions are that the underlying…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-24 Thom Badings , Licio Romao , Alessandro Abate , David Parker , Hasan A. Poonawala , Marielle Stoelinga , Nils Jansen

This paper proposes a novel robust Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme for linear discrete-time systems affected by model uncertainty described by interval matrices. The key feature of the proposed method is a bound on the uncertainty…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-20 Renato Quartullo , Andrea Garulli , Mirko Leomanni

Regularization of control policies using entropy can be instrumental in adjusting predictability of real-world systems. Applications benefiting from such approaches range from, e.g., cybersecurity, which aims at maximal unpredictability, to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-18 Menno van Zutphen , Giannis Delimpaltadakis , Maurice Heemels , Duarte Antunes

In this paper, we consider an integrated MSP-MDP framework which captures features of Markov decision process (MDP) and multistage stochastic programming (MSP). The integrated framework allows one to study a dynamic decision-making process…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-29 Zhiyao Yang , Zhiping Chen , Huifu Xu

We present a novel data-driven distributionally robust Model Predictive Control formulation for unknown discrete-time linear time-invariant systems affected by unknown and possibly unbounded additive uncertainties. We use off-line collected…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Francesco Micheli , Tyler Summers , John Lygeros

A basic model in sequential decision making is the Markov decision process (MDP), which is extended to Robust MDPs (RMDPs) by allowing uncertainty in transition probabilities and optimizing against the worst-case transition probabilities…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Ali Asadi , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Alipasha Montaseri , Ali Shafiee

In many real-world problems, there is the possibility to configure, to a limited extent, some environmental parameters to improve the performance of a learning agent. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, Configurable Markov Decision…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-06-15 Alberto Maria Metelli , Mirco Mutti , Marcello Restelli

Markov decision processes (MDP) and continuous-time MDP (CTMDP) are the fundamental models for non-deterministic systems with probabilistic uncertainty. Mean payoff (a.k.a. long-run average reward) is one of the most classic objectives…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-06 Chaitanya Agarwal , Shibashis Guha , Jan Křetínský , M. Pazhamalai

This paper studies constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) with constraints against stochastic thresholds, aiming at safety of reinforcement learning in unknown and uncertain environments. We leverage a Growing-Window estimator…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-25 Qian Zuo , Fengxiang He

Robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs) extend standard Markov decision processes (MDPs) to account for uncertainty in the transition probabilities. RMDPs have an uncertainty set that defines a set of possible transition functions, each of…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Marnix Suilen , Guillermo A. Pérez

This paper addresses a key limitation in existing counterfactual inference methods for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Current approaches assume a specific causal model to make counterfactuals identifiable. However, there are usually many…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jessica Lally , Milad Kazemi , Nicola Paoletti

The deployment of autonomous systems in safety-critical environments requires control policies that guarantee satisfaction of complex control specifications. These systems are commonly modeled as nonlinear discrete-time stochastic systems.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-07 Alessandro Riccardi , Thom Badings , Luca Laurenti , Alessandro Abate , Bart De Schutter

We address the problem of computing reliable policies in reinforcement learning problems with limited data. In particular, we compute policies that achieve good returns with high confidence when deployed. This objective, known as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-01 Bahram Behzadian , Reazul Hasan Russel , Marek Petrik , Chin Pang Ho

This paper proposes a general incremental policy iteration adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm for model-free robust optimal control of unknown nonlinear systems. The approach integrates recursive least squares estimation with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-01 Qingkai Meng , Fenglan Wang , Lin Zhao

This paper presents a robust MPC scheme for linear systems subject to time-varying, uncertain constraints that arise from uncertain environments. The predicted input sequence is parameterized over future environment states to guarantee…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-16 Philipp Buschermöhle , Taouba Jouini , Torsten Lilge , Matthias A. Müller