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This article reviews the concepts and methods of variational path sampling. These methods allow computational studies of rare events in systems driven arbitrarily far from equilibrium. Based upon a statistical mechanics of trajectory space…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-02-05 Aditya N. Singh , Avishek Das , David T. Limmer

Path sampling allows the study of rare events like chemical reactions, nucleation and protein folding via a Monte Carlo (MC) exploration in path space. Instead of configuration points, this method samples short molecular dynamics (MD)…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-01-25 Daniel T. Zhang , Enrico Riccardi , Titus S. van Erp

We elaborate and validate a generalization of the renowned transition-path-sampling algorithm for a paradigmatic model of active particles, namely the Run-and-Tumble particles. Notwithstanding the non-equilibrium character of these…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2024-11-20 Thomas Kiechl , Thomas Franosch , Michele Caraglio

We use importance sampling in a redefined way to highlight and investigate rare events in the form of trajectories trapped inside a target coherent set. We take a transfer operator approach to finding these sets on a reconstructed…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2020-10-16 Meagan Carney , Holger Kantz

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations are fundamental computational tools for the study of proteins and their free energy landscapes. However, sampling protein conformational changes through MD simulations is challenging due to the relatively…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-20 Diego E. Kleiman , Hassan Nadeem , Diwakar Shukla

Radio propagation modeling is essential in telecommunication research, as radio channels result from complex interactions with environmental objects. Recently, Machine Learning has been attracting attention as a potential alternative to…

We review two recently developed efficient methods for calculating rate constants of processes dominated by rare events in high-dimensional complex systems. The first is transition interface sampling (TIS), based on the measurement of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Titus S. van Erp , Peter G. Bolhuis

Finding and sampling rare trajectories in dynamical systems is a difficult computational task underlying numerous problems and applications. In this paper we show how to construct Metropolis- Hastings Monte Carlo methods that can…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-10-16 Jorge C. Leitao , Joao M. Viana Parente Lopes , Eduardo G. Altmann

Sampling is a fundamental problem in computer science and statistics. However, for a given task and stream, it is often not possible to choose good sampling probabilities in advance. We derive a general framework for adaptively changing the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-16 Daniel Ting

Model comparison for the purposes of selection, averaging and validation is a problem found throughout statistics. Within the Bayesian paradigm, these problems all require the calculation of the posterior probabilities of models within a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-08 Yan Zhou , Adam M Johansen , John A D Aston

Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Carsten Hartmann , Annika Jöster , Christof Schütte , Alexander Sikorski , Marcus Weber

The presence of erratic or unstable paths in standard kinetic Monte Carlo simulations significantly undermines the accurate simulation and sampling of transition pathways. While typically reliable methods, such as the Gillespie algorithm,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-03 Elad Korngut , Ohad Vilk , Michael Assaf

Temporal point processes offer a powerful framework for sampling from discrete distributions, yet they remain underutilized in existing literature. We show how to construct, for any target multivariate count distribution with…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-19 Cameron A. Stewart , Maneesh Sahani

Path sampling approaches have become invaluable tools to explore the mechanisms and dynamics of so-called rare events that are characterized by transitions between metastable states separated by sizeable free energy barriers. Their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-06-08 Steven W. Hall , Grisell Díaz Leines , Sapna Sarupria , Jutta Rogal

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Justin Finkel , Paul A. O'Gorman

Spontaneous structural rearrangements play a central role in the organization and function of complex biomolecular systems. In principle, physics-based computer simulations like Molecular Dynamics (MD) enable us to investigate these…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-19 Danial Ghamari , Philipp Hauke , Roberto Covino , Pietro Faccioli

In comparison to numerous enhanced sampling methods for equilbrium thermodynamics, accelerating simulations for kinetics and nonequilibrium statistics are relatively rare and less effective. Here we derive a time-reversal path sampling…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-11-10 Zhirong Liu

Tipping points occur in many real-world systems, at which the system shifts suddenly from one state to another. The ability to predict the occurrence of tipping points from time series data remains an outstanding challenge and a major…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Chengzuo Zhuge , Jiawei Li , Wei Chen

A sampling procedure for the transition matrix Monte Carlo method is introduced that generates the density of states function over a wide parameter range with minimal coding effort.

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-03-23 David Yevick

We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Carsten Hartmann