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The networked nature of supply chains makes them susceptible to systemic risk, where local firm failures can propagate through firm interdependencies that can lead to cascading supply chain disruptions. The systemic risk of supply chains…

General Economics · Economics 2025-05-01 Giacomo Zelbi , Leonardo Niccolò Ialongo , Stefan Thurner

National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to…

General Economics · Economics 2021-10-13 Tobias Reisch , Georg Heiler , Christian Diem , Stefan Thurner

Crises like COVID-19 or the Japanese earthquake in 2011 exposed the fragility of corporate supply networks. The production of goods and services is a highly interdependent process and can be severely impacted by the default of critical…

General Economics · Economics 2021-04-16 Christian Diem , András Borsos , Tobias Reisch , János Kertész , Stefan Thurner

There is a large consensus on the fundamental role of firm-level supply chain networks in macroeconomics. However, data on supply chains at the fine-grained, firm level are scarce and frequently incomplete. For listed firms, some commercial…

General Economics · Economics 2023-04-04 Andrea Bacilieri , Pablo Austudillo-Estevez

Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-25 Jan Fialkowski , Christian Diem , András Borsos , Stefan Thurner

Recent crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions have exposed vulnerabilities and caused disruptions of supply chains, leading to product shortages, increased costs, and economic instability. This has prompted increasing…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-06-27 Anna Mancini , Balázs Lengyel , Riccardo Di Clemente , Giulio Cimini

Realistic credit risk assessment, the estimation of losses from counterparty's failure, is central for the financial stability. Credit risk models focus on the financial conditions of borrowers and only marginally consider other risks from…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-09 Zlata Tabachová , Christian Diem , András Borsos , Csaba Burger , Stefan Thurner

We study the difference between the level of systemic risk that is empirically measured on an interbank network and the risk that can be deduced from the balance sheets composition of the participating banks. Using generalised DebtRank…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-07 Alessandro Ferracci , Giulio Cimini

We reconstruct a product-level input-output network based on firm-level import-export data of Italian firms. We show that the network has a statistically significant, yet nuanced trophic structure, which is evident at the product level but…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-05-05 Massimiliano Fessina , Andrea Tacchella , Andrea Zaccaria

The inability to see and quantify systemic financial risk comes at an immense social cost. Systemic risk in the financial system arises to a large extent as a consequence of the interconnectedness of its institutions, which are linked…

Recent crises have shown that the knowledge of the structure of input-output networks at the firm level is crucial when studying economic resilience from the microscopic point of view of firms that rewire their connections under supply and…

We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling complex systems: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-12-07 Giulio Cimini , Tiziano Squartini , Diego Garlaschelli , Andrea Gabrielli

In today's global economy, supply chain (SC) entities have become increasingly interconnected with demand and supply relationships due to the need for strategic outsourcing. Such interdependence among firms not only increases efficiency but…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-11-16 Qihui Yang , Caterina Scoglio , Don Gruenbacher

The strength of a supply chain is an important measure of a country's or region's technical advancement and overall competitiveness. Establishing supply chain risk assessment models for effective management and mitigation of potential risks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Zhanting Zhou , Kejun Bi , Yuyanzhen Zhong , Chao Tang , Dongfen Li , Shi Ying , Ruijin Wang

Resilient supply chains are often inherently dependent on the nature of their complex interconnected networks that are simultaneously multi-dimensional and multi-layered. This article presents a Supply Chain Network (SCN) model that can be…

Supply chain networks (SCN) form the structural backbone of any society. They constitute the societal metabolism that literally produces everything for everybody by coordinating practically every single person on the planet. SCNs are by no…

General Economics · Economics 2025-03-27 Tobias Reisch , András Borsos , Stefan Thurner

Due to the increasingly complex and interconnected nature of global supply chain networks (SCNs), a recent strand of research has applied network science methods to model SCN growth and subsequently analyse various topological features,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-03-28 Supun Perera , Michael Bell , Michiel Bliemer

Global crises and regulatory developments require increased supply chain transparency and resilience. Companies do not only need to react to a dynamic environment but have to act proactively and implement measures to prevent production…

Assessing the resilience of the economy requires accounting for its intrinsic multi-layer nature, by assessing for instance how disruptions at the firm level spread through the production network and propagate to the banking sector. Methods…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-03-11 Soumen Majhi , Anna Mancini , Giulio Cimini

We provide a framework for detecting relevant insurance companies in a systemic risk perspective. Among the alternative methodologies for measuring systemic risk, we propose a complex network approach where insurers are linked to form a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-11-24 Gian Paolo Clemente , Alessandra Cornaro
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