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In this paper, we explore optimal treatment allocation policies that target distributional welfare. Most literature on treatment choice has considered utilitarian welfare based on the conditional average treatment effect (ATE). While…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-30 Yifan Cui , Sukjin Han

Randomized experiments can provide unbiased estimates of sample average treatment effects. However, estimates of population treatment effects can be biased when the experimental sample and the target population differ. In this case, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-10 Wenqi Shi , Xi Lin

Identifying patient subgroups with different treatment responses is an important task to inform medical recommendations, guidelines, and the design of future clinical trials. Existing approaches for treatment effect estimation primarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Vincent Jeanselme , Chang Ho Yoon , Fabian Falck , Brian Tom , Jessica Barrett

In classical study designs, the aim is often to learn about the effects of a treatment or intervention on a single outcome; in many modern studies, however, data on multiple outcomes are collected and it is of interest to explore effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-15 Edward H. Kennedy , Shreya Kangovi , Nandita Mitra

We consider a randomized controlled trial between two groups. The objective is to identify a population with characteristics such that the test therapy is more effective than the control therapy. Such a population is called a subgroup. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-06 Shintaro Yuki , Kensuke Tanioka , Hiroshi Yadohisa

In many practical situations, randomly assigning treatments to subjects is uncommon due to feasibility constraints. For example, economic aid programs and merit-based scholarships are often restricted to those meeting specific income or…

Empirical work often uses treatment assigned following geographic boundaries. When the effects of treatment cross over borders, classical difference-in-differences estimation produces biased estimates for the average treatment effect. In…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-13 Kyle Butts

The present paper proposes a new treatment effects estimator that is valid when the number of time periods is small, and the parallel trends condition holds conditional on covariates and unobserved heterogeneity in the form of interactive…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-16 Nicholas Brown , Kyle Butts , Joakim Westerlund

This paper proposes a~simple, yet powerful, method for balancing distributions of covariates for causal inference based on observational studies. The method makes it possible to balance an arbitrary number of quantiles (e.g., medians,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-14 Maciej Beręsewicz

In a randomized control trial, the precision of an average treatment effect estimator can be improved either by collecting data on additional individuals, or by collecting additional covariates that predict the outcome variable. We propose…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-27 Pedro Carneiro , Sokbae Lee , Daniel Wilhelm

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the accepted standard for treatment effect estimation but they can be infeasible due to ethical reasons and prohibitive costs. Single-arm trials, where all patients belong to the treatment group, can…

Most causal inference methods focus on estimating marginal average treatment effects, but many important causal estimands depend on the joint distribution of potential outcomes, including the probability of causation and proportions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-16 Zach Shahn , David Madigan

This paper studies non-separable models with a continuous treatment when the dimension of the control variables is high and potentially larger than the effective sample size. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to estimate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-07 Liangjun Su , Takuya Ura , Yichong Zhang

Randomized control trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating causal effects, but often use samples that are non-representative of the actual population of interest. We propose a reweighting method for estimating population average…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-09 Kellie Ottoboni , Jason Poulos

We consider estimation and inference of the effects of a policy in the absence of an untreated or control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Irene Botosaru , Raffaella Giacomini , Martin Weidner

We present methods for causally interpretable meta-analyses that combine information from multiple randomized trials to estimate potential (counterfactual) outcome means and average treatment effects in a target population. We consider…

Not only does mobile health technology enable researchers to track changes in multiple longitudinal outcomes of interest and to record the occurrence of health-related events over time, but it also allows for the delivery of repeated…

Personalized medicine seeks to identify the causal effect of treatment for a particular patient as opposed to a clinical population at large. Most investigators estimate such personalized treatment effects by regressing the outcome of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-02 Eric V. Strobl , Shyam Visweswaran

Using only retrospective data, we study the problem of predicting treatment effects for the same treatment/policy implemented in a different location or time period. We propose a distributionally robust estimator that minimizes the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-29 Ruonan Xu , Xiye Yang

We derive new variance formulas for inference on a general class of estimands of causal average treatment effects in a Randomized Control Trial (RCT). We generalize Robins (1988) and show that when the estimand of interest is the Sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-19 Jasjeet S. Sekhon , Yotam Shem-Tov