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Statisticians often use Monte Carlo methods to approximate probability distributions, primarily with Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are a class of algorithms that combine both techniques to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-20 Chenguang Dai , Jeremy Heng , Pierre E. Jacob , Nick Whiteley

We present a Monte Carlo method to compute efficiently susceptibilites or covariances of two physical variables. The method relies on a generalization of the exchange cluster algorithm to any model of interacting particles with any $2$-body…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-02-11 Assaraf Roland , Chevreau Hilaire

Monte Carlo sampling of any system may be analyzed in terms of an associated glass model -- a variant of the Random Energy Model -- with, whenever there is a sign problem, complex fields. This model has three types of phases (liquid, frozen…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-01-17 Gustavo During , Jorge Kurchan

Score based approaches to sampling have shown much success as a generative algorithm to produce new samples from a target density given a pool of initial samples. In this work, we consider if we have no initial samples from the target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Curtis McDonald , Andrew Barron

In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 V. Dubourg , F. Deheeger , B. Sudret

Monte Carlo method is a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. They are often used in physical and mathematical problems and are most useful when it is difficult or…

Computation · Statistics 2018-09-28 Bochao Jia

The objective of Bayesian inference is often to infer, from data, a probability measure for a random variable that can be used as input for Monte Carlo simulation. When datasets for Bayesian inference are small, a principle challenge is…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-29 Jiaxin Zhang , Michael D. Shields

Strength estimation and adjustment are crucial in designing human-AI interactions, particularly in games where AI surpasses human players. This paper introduces a novel strength system, including a strength estimator (SE) and an SE-based…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-24 Chun Jung Chen , Chung-Chin Shih , Ti-Rong Wu

Password guessers are instrumental for assessing the strength of passwords. Despite their diversity and abundance, little is known about how different guessers compare to each other. We perform in-depth analyses and comparisons of the…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Zach Parish , Connor Cushing , Shourya Aggarwal , Amirali Salehi-Abari , Julie Thorpe

Monte Carlo computer simulations are virtually the only way to analyze the thermodynamic behavior of a system in a precise way. However, the various existing methods exhibit extreme differences in their efficiency, depending on model…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-07-05 Michael Bachmann

In this work we consider a class of uncertainty quantification problems where the system performance or reliability is characterized by a scalar parameter $y$. The performance parameter $y$ is random due to the presence of various sources…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-07-20 Keyi Wu , Jinglai Li

We describe and analyze some Monte Carlo methods for manifolds in Euclidean space defined by equality and inequality constraints. First, we give an MCMC sampler for probability distributions defined by un-normalized densities on such…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-09-21 Emilio Zappa , Miranda Holmes-Cerfon , Jonathan Goodman

We present an exact Monte Carlo algorithm designed to sample theories where the energy is a sum of many couplings of decreasing strength. The algorithm avoids the computation of almost all non-leading terms. Its use is illustrated by…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2009-10-31 T. Bakeyev , Ph. de Forcrand

In the following article we provide an exposition of exact computational methods to perform parameter inference from partially observed network models. In particular, we consider the duplication attachment (DA) model which has a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-20 Junshan Wang , Ajay Jasra , Maria De Iorio

The trace of a matrix function f(A), most notably of the matrix inverse, can be estimated stochastically using samples< x,f(A)x> if the components of the random vectors x obey an appropriate probability distribution. However such a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-26 Andreas Frommer , Mostafa Nasr Khalil , Gustavo Ramirez-Hidalgo

Consider testing multiple hypotheses using tests that can only be evaluated by simulation, such as permutation tests or bootstrap tests. This article introduces MMCTest, a sequential algorithm which gives, with arbitrarily high probability,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-17 Axel Gandy , Georg Hahn

We propose a new formulation of the problem of prime factorization of integers. With replica exchange Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior which is seemed to indicate exponential computational hardness is observed. But this formulation is…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2013-11-18 Chihiro H. Nakajima

Rejection Sampling is a fundamental Monte-Carlo method. It is used to sample from distributions admitting a probability density function which can be evaluated exactly at any given point, albeit at a high computational cost. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-23 Juliette Achdou , Joseph C. Lam , Alexandra Carpentier , Gilles Blanchard

The simulation of the expectation of a stochastic quantity E[Y] by Monte Carlo methods is known to be computationally expensive especially if the stochastic quantity or its approximation Y_n is expensive to simulate, e.g., the solution of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Annika Lang , Andreas Petersson

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are popular when considering sampling from a high-dimensional random variable $\mathbf{x}$ with possibly unnormalised probability density $p$ and observed data $\mathbf{d}$. However, MCMC requires…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-11 Haoyun Ying , Keheng Mao , Klaus Mosegaard