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Completely random measures (CRMs) and their normalizations are a rich source of Bayesian nonparametric priors. Examples include the beta, gamma, and Dirichlet processes. In this paper we detail two major classes of sequential CRM…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-11 Trevor Campbell , Jonathan H. Huggins , Jonathan P. How , Tamara Broderick

A weighted Gaussian approximation to tail product-limit process for Pareto-like distributions of randomly right-truncated data is provided and a new consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of the extreme value index is derived. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Souad Benchaira , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir

In this paper, we study the problem of control of discrete-time linear time varying systems over uncertain channels. The uncertainty in the channels is modeled as a stochastic random variable. We use exponential mean square stability of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-09-01 Amit Diwadkar , Umesh Vaidya

We present a simple case study, demonstrating that Variational Information Bottleneck (VIB) can improve a network's classification calibration as well as its ability to detect out-of-distribution data. Without explicitly being designed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-04 Alexander A. Alemi , Ian Fischer , Joshua V. Dillon

A phenomenological two-fluid model of the (time-reversible) spectrally-truncated 3D Euler equation is proposed. The thermalized small scales are first shown to be quasi-normal. The effective viscosity and thermal diffusion are then…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-13 Giorgio Krstulovic , Marc-Etienne Brachet

Consider semiparametric estimation where a doubly robust estimating function for a low-dimensional parameter is available, depending on two working models. With high-dimensional data, we develop regularized calibrated estimation as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-28 Satyajit Ghosh , Zhiqiang Tan

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

We prove, in a unified way, $r$-variational estimates, $r>2$, on $\ell^{s}(\mathbb{Z})$ spaces, $s \in (1, \infty)$, for averages and truncated singular integrals along the set of prime numbers.

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2017-07-04 Mariusz Mirek , Bartosz Trojan , Pavel Zorin-Kranich

Tuning parameters are parameters involved in an estimating procedure for the purpose of reducing the risk of some other estimator. Examples include the degree of penalization in penalized regression and likelihood problems, as well as the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-31 Ingrid Dæhlen , Nils Lid Hjort , Ingrid Hobæk Haff

Clustered sampling is prevalent in empirical regression discontinuity (RD) designs, but it has not received much attention in the theoretical literature. In this paper, we introduce a general model-based framework for such settings and…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-20 Claudia Noack , Tomasz Olma , Christoph Rothe

Time-to-event endpoints show an increasing popularity in phase II cancer trials. The standard statistical tool for such one-armed survival trials is the one-sample log-rank test. Its distributional properties are commonly derived in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Moritz Fabian Danzer , Andreas Faldum , Rene Schmidt

This paper studies a fixed-design residual bootstrap method for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zako\"ian (2015) associated with the conditional Expected Shortfall. For a general class of volatility models the bootstrap is shown to be…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-11-29 Alexander Heinemann , Sean Telg

Based on the eigenvalue idea and the time-varying weighted vector norm in state space we construct here the lower and upper bounds on the solutions of uniformly asymptotically stable linear systems. We generalize the known results for the…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2020-06-08 Robert Vrabel

Recent algebraic parametric estimation techniques led to point-wise derivative estimates by using only the iterated integral of a noisy observation signal. In this paper, we extend such differentiation methods by providing a larger choice…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2011-03-04 Da-Yan Liu , Olivier Gibaru , Wilfrid Perruquetti

When multiple models are considered in regression problems, the model averaging method can be used to weigh and integrate the models. In the present study, we examined how the goodness-of-prediction of the estimator depends on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-21 Ryo Ando , Fumiyasu Komaki

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

Truncated sum rules have been used to calculate the fundamental limits of the nonlinear susceptibilities; and, the results have been consistent with all measured molecules. However, given that finite-state models result in inconsistencies…

Optics · Physics 2016-09-08 Mark G. Kuzyk

We consider estimating the shared mean of a sequence of heavy-tailed random variables taking values in a Banach space. In particular, we revisit and extend a simple truncation-based mean estimator first proposed by Catoni and Giulini. While…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Justin Whitehouse , Ben Chugg , Diego Martinez-Taboada , Aaditya Ramdas

In this paper, we apply doubly robust approach to estimate, when some covariates are given, the conditional average treatment effect under parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric structure of the nuisance propensity score and outcome…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-15 Chuyun Ye , Keli Guo , Lixing Zhu

For a random variable we can define a variational relationship with practical physical meaning as dI=dbar(x)-bar(dx), where I is called as uncertainty measurement. With the help of a generalized definition of expectation,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-10-27 Congjie Ou , Aziz El Kaabouchi , Alain Le Mehaute , Qiuping A. Wang , Jincan Chen