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In this paper, we consider the problem of modelling historical data on retail credit portfolio performance, with a view to forecasting future performance, and facilitating strategic decision making. We consider a situation, common in…
Machine learning models are usually evaluated according to the average case performance on the test set. However, this is not always ideal, because in some sensitive domains (e.g. autonomous driving), it is the worst case performance that…
In the post-pandemic world, manufacturing enterprises face increasing uncertainties, especially with vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Although supply chain management has been extensively studied, the critical influence of…
A mixture of experts models the conditional density of a response variable using a mixture of regression models with covariate-dependent mixture weights. We extend the finite mixture of experts model by allowing the parameters in both the…
Sales forecast is an essential task in E-commerce and has a crucial impact on making informed business decisions. It can help us to manage the workforce, cash flow and resources such as optimizing the supply chain of manufacturers etc.…
Helpful reviews have been essential for the success of e-commerce services, as they help customers make quick purchase decisions and benefit the merchants in their sales. While many reviews are informative, others provide little value and…
Bayesian analyses combine information represented by different terms in a joint Bayesian model. When one or more of the terms is misspecified, it can be helpful to restrict the use of information from suspect model components to modify…
Accurately predicting customer Lifetime Value (LTV) is crucial for companies to optimize their revenue strategies. Traditional deep learning models for LTV prediction are effective but typically provide only point estimates and fail to…
AI-enabled decision-support systems aim to help medical providers rapidly make decisions with limited information during medical emergencies. A critical challenge in developing these systems is supporting providers in interpreting the…
Customers of machine learning systems demand accountability from the companies employing these algorithms for various prediction tasks. Accountability requires understanding of system limit and condition of erroneous predictions, as…
One key requirement for effective supply chain management is the quality of its inventory management. Various inventory management methods are typically employed for different types of products based on their demand patterns, product…
We consider the problem of forecasting debt recovery from large portfolios of non-performing unsecured consumer loans under management. The state of the art in industry is to use stochastic processes to approximately model payment behaviour…
In Business Intelligence, accurate predictive modeling is the key for providing adaptive decisions. We studied predictive modeling problems in this research which was motivated by real-world cases that Microsoft data scientists encountered…
Predicting customer future purchases and lifetime value is a key metrics for managing marketing campaigns and optimizing marketing spend. This task is specifically challenging when the relationships between the customer and the firm are of…
Time series data are often corrupted by outliers or other kinds of anomalies. Identifying the anomalous points can be a goal on its own (anomaly detection), or a means to improving performance of other time series tasks (e.g. forecasting).…
Consistency properties provided by most key-value stores can be classified into sequential consistency and eventual consistency. The former is easier to program with but suffers from lower performance whereas the latter suffers from…
Demand forecasting in the online fashion industry is particularly amendable to global, data-driven forecasting models because of the industry's set of particular challenges. These include the volume of data, the irregularity, the high…
This paper introduces an Electric Vehicle Charging Station (EVCS) model that incorporates real-world constraints, such as slot power limitations, contract threshold overruns penalties, or early disconnections of electric vehicles (EVs). We…
Electronic commerce (a.k.a. E-commerce) systems such as eBay and Taobao of Alibaba are becoming increasingly popular. Having an effective reputation system is critical to this type of internet service because it can assist buyers to…
Supporting model interpretability for complex phenomena where annotators can legitimately disagree, such as emotion recognition, is a challenging machine learning task. In this work, we show that explicitly quantifying the uncertainty in…