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This paper introduces a novel Monte Carlo (MC) method to simulate the evolution of the low-earth orbit environment, enhancing the MIT Orbital Capacity Analysis Tool (MOCAT). In recent decades, numerous space environment models have been…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-15 Daniel Jang , Davide Gusmini , Peng Mun Siew , Andrea D'Ambrosio , Simone Servadio , Pablo Machuca , Richard Linares

With the rapid increase in the number of Anthropogenic Space Objects (ASOs), Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is facing significant congestion, thereby posing challenges to space operators and risking the viability of the space environment for varied…

The increasing number of Anthropogenic Space Objects (ASOs) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) poses a threat to the safety and sustainability of the space environment. Multiple companies are planning to launch large constellations of hundreds or…

Space Physics · Physics 2022-06-14 Andrea D'Ambrosio , Miles Lifson , Richard Linares

Future launches are projected to significantly increase both the number of active satellites and aggregate collision risk in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). In this paper, a dynamical systems theory approach is used to analyze the effect of launch…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-05 Celina Pasiecznik , Andrea D'Ambrosio , Daniel Jang , Richard Linares

Utilizing the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics algorithm (SINDy) and Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks (LSTM), the population of resident space objects, divided into Active, Derelict, and Debris, in LEO can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-28 Braden Stock , Maddox McVarthy , Simone Servadio

In this article we focus on dynamic network data which describe interactions among a fixed population through time. We model this data using the latent space framework, in which the probability of a connection forming is expressed as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Kathryn Turnbull , Christopher Nemeth , Matthew Nunes , Tyler McCormick

The spectrum of cosmic-ray electrons depends sensitively on the history and spatial distribution of nearby sources. Given our limited observational handle on cosmic-ray sources, any model remains necessarily probabilistic. Previously,…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-08-08 Nikolas Frediani , Michael Krämer , Philipp Mertsch , Kathrin Nippel

Source-sink systems are metapopulations of habitat patches with different, and possibly temporally varying, habitat qualities, which are commonly used in ecology to study the fate of spatially extended natural populations. We propose new…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-18 Vincent Bansaye , Amaury Lambert

The presence of debris in Earth's orbit poses a significant risk to human activity in outer space. This debris population continues to grow due to ground launches, loss of external parts from space ships, and uncontrollable collisions…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-01-11 John Jurkiewicz , Peter Hinow

Source-sink systems are metapopulations of patches that can be of variable habitat quality. They can be seen as graphs, where vertices represent the patches, and the weighted oriented edges give the probability of dispersal from one patch…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-11 Vincent Bansaye , Amaury Lambert

Stochastic dynamical systems arise naturally across nearly all areas of science and engineering. Typically, a dynamical system model is based on some prior knowledge about the underlying dynamics of interest in which probabilistic features…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-09-03 Chao Yin , Xihaier Luo , Ahsan Kareem

The number of resident space objects is rising at an alarming rate. Mega-constellations and breakup events are proliferating in most orbital regimes, and safe navigation is becoming increasingly problematic. It is important to be able to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-04-11 Yannick Sztamfater Garcia , Joaquin Miguez , Manuel Sanjurjo-Rivo

The high number of planet discoveries made in the last years provides a good sample for statistical analysis, leading to some clues on the distributions of planet parameters, like masses and periods, at least in close proximity to the host…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-30 M. Bonavita , G. Chauvin , S. Desidera , R. Gratton , M. Janson , J. L. Beuzit , M. Kasper , C. Mordasini

In this paper, we investigate the stochastic evolution equations (SEEs) driven by $\log$-Whittle-Mat$\acute{{\mathrm{e}}}$rn (W-M) random diffusion coefficient field and $Q$-Wiener multiplicative force noise. First, the well-posedness of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-07-05 X. Qi , M. Azaiez , C. Huang , C. Xu

A general satellite channel model is proposed for communications between a rapidly moving low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite in a mega-constellation and a stationary user on Earth. The channel uses a non-homogeneous binomial point process…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Brendon McBain , Yi Hong , Emanuele Viterbo

We develop two statistical models for space-time abundance data based on a stochastic underlying continuous individual movement. In contrast to current models for abundance in statistical ecology, our models exploit the explicit connection…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-24 Ricardo Carrizo Vergara , Marc Kéry , Trevor Hefley

We present a novel population-based Bayesian inference approach to model the average and population variance of spatial distribution of a set of observables from ensemble analysis of low signal-to-noise ratio measurements. The method…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-23 Arya Farahi , Daisuke Nagai , Yang Chen

In this paper we present COMET, a Gaussian process emulator of the galaxy power spectrum multipoles in redshift-space. The model predictions are based on one-loop perturbation theory and we consider two alternative descriptions of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-05-01 Alexander Eggemeier , Benjamin Camacho-Quevedo , Andrea Pezzotta , Martin Crocce , Román Scoccimarro , Ariel G. Sánchez

In a series of recent papers and in a book, this author put forward a mathematical model capable of embracing the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI), Darwinian Evolution and Human History into a single, unified statistical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-03-24 Claudio Maccone

The evolution of states of a spatial ecological model is studied. The model describes an infinite population of point entities placed in $\mathbb{R}^d$ which reproduce themselves at distant points (disperse) and die with rate that includes…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-12-22 Yuri Kondratiev , Yuri Kozitsky
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