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Reliable uncertainty estimation is one of the major challenges for medical classification tasks. While many approaches have been proposed, recently the statistical framework of conformal predictions has gained a lot of attention, due to its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Hendrik Mehrtens , Tabea Bucher , Titus J. Brinker

Machine learning driven medical image segmentation has become standard in medical image analysis. However, deep learning models are prone to overconfident predictions. This has led to a renewed focus on calibrated predictions in the medical…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-24 Teodora Popordanoska , Jeroen Bertels , Dirk Vandermeulen , Frederik Maes , Matthew B. Blaschko

Uncertainty quantification in medical images has become an essential addition to segmentation models for practical application in the real world. Although there are valuable developments in accurate uncertainty quantification methods using…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-02 Christiaan G. A. Viviers , Amaan M. M. Valiuddin , Peter H. N. de With , Fons van der Sommen

Background and objective: Uncertainty quantification is a pivotal field that contributes to realizing reliable and robust systems. It becomes instrumental in fortifying safe decisions by providing complementary information, particularly…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-19 Jamil Fayyad , Shadi Alijani , Homayoun Najjaran

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

The use of deep learning for medical imaging has seen tremendous growth in the research community. One reason for the slow uptake of these systems in the clinical setting is that they are complex, opaque and tend to fail silently. Outside…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-07-03 Terrance DeVries , Graham W. Taylor

Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage under exchangeability, but standard constructions may lack robustness in the presence of outliers or heavy tails. We propose a robust conformal method based on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Alejandro Cholaquidis , Emilien Joly , Leonardo Moreno

Quantifying uncertainty in clinical predictions is critical for high-stakes diagnosis tasks. Conformal prediction offers a principled approach by providing prediction sets with theoretical coverage guarantees. However, in practice, patient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Arjun Chatterjee , Sayeed Sajjad Razin , John Wu , Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Jathurshan Pradeepkumar , Jimeng Sun

In safety-critical applications like medical diagnosis, certainty associated with a model's prediction is just as important as its accuracy. Consequently, uncertainty estimation and reduction play a crucial role. Uncertainty in predictions…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-12 Abhishek Singh Sambyal , Narayanan C. Krishnan , Deepti R. Bathula

Current instance segmentation models achieve high performance on average predictions, but lack principled uncertainty quantification: their outputs are not calibrated, and there is no guarantee that a predicted mask is close to the ground…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Kerri Lu , Dan M. Kluger , Stephen Bates , Sherrie Wang

Contrastive learning produces coherent semantic feature embeddings by encouraging positive samples to cluster closely while separating negative samples. However, existing contrastive learning methods lack principled guarantees on coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Yahya Alkhatib , Wee Peng Tay

Accurate uncertainty estimation is a critical need for the medical imaging community. A variety of methods have been proposed, all direct extensions of classification uncertainty estimations techniques. The independent pixel-wise…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-16 Thierry Judge , Olivier Bernard , Mihaela Porumb , Agis Chartsias , Arian Beqiri , Pierre-Marc Jodoin

Instance segmentation plays a pivotal role in medical image analysis by enabling precise localization and delineation of lesions, tumors, and anatomical structures. Although deep learning models such as Mask R-CNN and BlendMask have…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Mengxia Dai , Wenqian Luo , Tianyang Li

Medical imaging classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, which prevents their deployment in medical clinics. We present an algorithm that can modify any classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Roy Hirsch , Jacob Goldberger

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Trevor Harris

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Conformal prediction, which makes no distributional assumptions about the data, has emerged as a powerful and reliable approach to uncertainty quantification in practical applications. The nonconformity measure used in conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Yuko Kato , David M. J. Tax , Marco Loog

Interest has been growing in decision-focused machine learning methods which train models to account for how their predictions are used in downstream optimization problems. Doing so can often improve performance on subsequent decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Carlos Patiño , Yewon Byun , Steven Wu , Eric Horvitz , Bryan Wilder

Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Image segmentation algorithms can be understood as a collection of pixel classifiers, for which the outcomes of nearby pixels are correlated. Classifier models can be calibrated using Inductive Conformal Prediction, but this requires…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Joren Brunekreef , Eric Marcus , Ray Sheombarsing , Jan-Jakob Sonke , Jonas Teuwen