Related papers: Multilevel Monte Carlo in Sample Average Approxima…
We propose a variance reduction framework for variational inference using the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Our framework is built on reparameterized gradient estimators and "recycles" parameters obtained from past update history in…
This paper studies sample average approximation (SAA) in solving convex or strongly convex stochastic programming (SP) problems. In estimating SAA's sample efficiency, the state-of-the-art sample complexity bounds entail metric entropy…
We analyze and compare the computational complexity of different simulation strategies for Monte Carlo in the setting of classically scaled population processes. This allows a range of widely used competing strategies to be judged…
We consider the computational efficiency of Monte Carlo (MC) and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods applied to partial differential equations with random coefficients. These arise, for example, in groundwater flow modelling, where a…
We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. This setting is ubiquitous…
We consider the problem of estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfolio, where the future loss is expressed as a conditional expectation. Since the conditional expectation is intractable in most cases, one may…
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…
In this article, we study the application of Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) approaches to numerical random homogenization. Our objective is to compute the expectation of some functionals of the homogenized coefficients, or of the…
A formal mean square error expansion (MSE) is derived for Euler--Maruyama numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations (SDE). The error expansion is used to construct a pathwise a posteriori adaptive time stepping…
In many real-world engineering systems, the performance or reliability of the system is characterised by a scalar parameter. The distribution of this performance parameter is important in many uncertainty quantification problems, ranging…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…
Frequentist and likelihood methods of inference based on the multivariate skew-normal model encounter several technical difficulties with this model. In spite of the popularity of this class of densities, there are no broadly satisfactory…
We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…
We interpret uncertainty in a model for seismic wave propagation by treating the model parameters as random variables, and apply the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to reduce the cost of approximating expected values of selected,…
Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…
Constructing unbiased estimators from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) outputs is a difficult problem that has recently received a lot of attention in the statistics and machine learning communities. However, the current unbiased MCMC…
Sensitivity analysis (SA) is a procedure for studying how sensitive are the output results of large-scale mathematical models to some uncertainties of the input data. The models are described as a system of partial differential equations.…
Partial differential equation is a powerful tool to characterize various physics systems. In practice, measurement errors are often present and probability models are employed to account for such uncertainties. In this paper, we present a…
By adopting a Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework, we show that only a handful of costly fine scale computations are needed to accurately estimate statistics of the failure of a composite structure, as opposed to the thousands typically…
Sample average approximation (SAA) is a technique for obtaining approximate solutions to stochastic programs that uses the average from a random sample to approximate the expected value that is being optimized. Since the outcome from…