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Estimating the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is very important in causal inference and has a wide range of applications across many fields. In the estimation process of CATE, the unconfoundedness assumption is typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Pengfei Shi , Wei Zhong , Xinyu Zhang , Ningtao Wang , Xing Fu , Weiqiang Wang , Yin Jin

This paper studies the generalization of the targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) framework to estimation of effects of time-varying interventions in settings where both interventions, covariates, and outcome can happen at…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-06 Helene C. Rytgaard , Thomas A. Gerds , Mark J. van der Laan

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

Previous work on causal inference has primarily focused on averages and conditional averages of treatment effects, with significantly less attention on variability and uncertainty in individual treatment responses. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Liyuan Xu , Bijan Mazaheri

There is a dearth of robust methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. This paper uses two unique sets of simulations to propose and evaluate the use of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Liangyuan Hu , Chenyang Gu , Michael Lopez , Jiayi Ji , Juan Wisnivesky

Motivated by conflicting conclusions regarding hydrocortisone's treatment effect on ICU patients with vasopressor-dependent septic shock, we developed a novel instrumental variable (IV) estimator to assess the average treatment effect (ATE)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-18 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

Conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation is the de facto gold standard for targeting a treatment to a heterogeneous population. The method estimates treatment effects up to an error $\epsilon > 0$ in each of $M$ different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-12 Sílvia Casacuberta , Moritz Hardt

Competing risk is a common phenomenon when dealing with time-to-event outcomes in biostatistical applications. An attractive estimand in this setting is the "number of life-years lost due to a specific cause of death", Andersen et al.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Simon Christoffer Ziersen , Torben Martinussen

Personalized intervention strategies, in particular those that modify treatment based on a participant's own response, are a core component of precision medicine approaches. Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trials (SMARTs) are…

The primary analysis of clinical trials in diabetes therapeutic area often involves a mixed-model repeated measure (MMRM) approach to estimate the average treatment effect for longitudinal continuous outcome, and a generalized linear mixed…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-03 Lingjing Jiang , Michael Rosenblum , Yu Du

Estimating the impact of trauma treatment protocols is complicated by the high dimensional yet finite sample nature of trauma data collected from observational studies. Viscoelastic assays are highly predictive measures of hemostasis.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-27 Linqing Wei , Lucy Z. Kornblith , Alan Hubbard

Estimating individualised treatment effect (ITE) -- that is the causal effect of a set of variables (also called exposures, treatments, actions, policies, or interventions), referred to as \textit{composite treatments}, on a set of outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Lei Clifton , Gaurav Nigam , David A. Clifton

We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Alicia Curth , Changhee Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

Across research disciplines, cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are commonly implemented to evaluate interventions delivered to groups of participants, such as communities and clinics. Despite advances in the design and analysis of CRTs,…

Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are increasingly estimated from observational data and used to guide policy and individualized treatment decisions. Before such estimates can be trusted in practice, their predictive fitness…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Bosen Cui , Yuhong Yang

In many practical situations, randomly assigning treatments to subjects is uncommon due to feasibility constraints. For example, economic aid programs and merit-based scholarships are often restricted to those meeting specific income or…

Within heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) analysis, various estimands have been proposed to capture the effect of a treatment conditional on covariates. Recently, the conditional quantile comparator (CQC) has emerged as a promising…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-28 Josh Givens , Song Liu , Henry W J Reeve , Katarzyna Reluga

We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from time-to-event data in the presence of competing events. Albeit its great practical relevance, this problem has received little attention compared to its…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-27 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

Estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) plays an essential role in modern medicine by informing treatment decision-making at a patient level. Several metalearners have been proposed recently to estimate CATEs in an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-07 Yizhe Xu , Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Erik Sverdrup , Scott Fleming , Stefan Wager , Nigam Shah

Randomized controlled trials are the standard method for estimating causal effects, ensuring sufficient statistical power and confidence through adequate sample sizes. However, achieving such sample sizes is often challenging. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Keisuke Hanada , Masahiro Kojima