Related papers: Constructing Markov chains with given dependence a…
In this research the technology of complex Markov chains is applied to predict financial time series. The main distinction of complex or high-order Markov Chains and simple first-order ones is the existing of aftereffect or memory. The…
We present a method to sample Markov-chain trajectories constrained to both the initial and final conditions, which we term Markov bridges. The trajectories are conditioned to end in a specific state at a given time. We derive the master…
Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…
We study the class structure of finite-alphabet Markov chains with arbitrary memory length. To capture the structural constraints induced by prohibited transitions, we introduce the skeleton of a higher-order transition kernel, defined as a…
In this work we introduce a new and richer class of finite order Markov chain models and address the following model selection problem: find the Markov model with the minimal set of parameters (minimal Markov model) which is necessary to…
Markov networks are popular models for discrete multivariate systems where the dependence structure of the variables is specified by an undirected graph. To allow for more expressive dependence structures, several generalizations of Markov…
We describe a simple algorithm based on a Markov chain process to generate simply connected acyclic directed graphs over a fixed set of vertices. This algorithm is an extension of a previous one, designed to generate acyclic digraphs, non…
Predictive constructions are a powerful way of characterizing the probability law of stochastic processes with certain forms of invariance, such as exchangeability or Markov exchangeability. When de Finetti-like representation theorems are…
By proving a local limit theorem for higher-order transitions, we determine the time required for necklace chains to be close to stationarity. Because necklace chains, built by arranging identical smaller chains around a directed cycle, are…
We derive a Markov basis consisting of moves of degree at most three for two-state toric homogeneous Markov chain model of arbitrary length without parameters for initial states. Our basis consists of moves of degree three and degree one,…
Perturbation analysis of Markov chains provides bounds on the effect that a change in a Markov transition matrix has on the corresponding stationary distribution. This paper compares and analyzes bounds found in the literature for finite…
We extend the Markov chain tree theorem to general commutative semirings, and we generalize the state reduction algorithm to commutative semifields. This leads to a new universal algorithm, whose prototype is the state reduction algorithm…
For discrete-time Markov chains on general state spaces, we establish criteria for non-ergodicity and non-strong ergodicity, and derive sufficient conditions for non-geometric ergodicity via the theory of minimal nonnegative solutions. Our…
We study the problem of characterizing the expected hitting times for a robust generalization of continuous-time Markov chains. This generalization is based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, and the models with which we work…
Many applications in networked control require intermittent access of a controller to a system, as in event-triggered systems or information constrained control applications. Motivated by such applications and extending previous work on…
A sequence of real numbers (x_n) is Benford if the significands, i.e. the fraction parts in the floating-point representation of (x_n) are distributed logarithmically. Similarly, a discrete-time irreducible and aperiodic finite-state Markov…
Arguing about the equilibrium distribution of continuous-time Markov chains can be vital for showing properties about the underlying systems. For example in biological systems, bistability of a chemical reaction network can hint at its…
We study continuous-time Markov chains on the non-negative integers under mild regularity conditions (in particular, the set of jump vectors is finite and both forward and backward jumps are possible). Based on the so-called flux balance…
The shortest-path, commute time, and diffusion distances on undirected graphs have been widely employed in applications such as dimensionality reduction, link prediction, and trip planning. Increasingly, there is interest in using…
Given a target distribution $\pi$ and an arbitrary Markov infinitesimal generator $L$ on a finite state space $\mathcal{X}$, we develop three structured and inter-related approaches to generate new reversiblizations from $L$. The first…