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Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, incorrect outputs pose significant risks in high-stakes domains like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Harit Vishwakarma , Alan Mishler , Thomas Cook , Niccolò Dalmasso , Natraj Raman , Sumitra Ganesh

Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) is a set of distribution-free and model agnostic algorithms devised to predict with a user-defined confidence with coverage guarantee. Instead of having point predictions, i.e., a real number in the case…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-05 Martim Sousa

In Sequential Recommendation Systems (SRecsys), traditional training approaches that rely on Cross-Entropy (CE) loss often prioritize accuracy but fail to align well with user satisfaction metrics. CE loss focuses on maximizing the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Chen Wang , Fangxin Wang , Ruocheng Guo , Yueqing Liang , Philip S. Yu

Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Haifeng Wen , Osvaldo Simeone , Hong Xing

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction is a framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification for general models with exchangeable data. However, in the online learning and time-series settings, exchangeability is not satisfied. Existing online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Yuheng Lai , Garvesh Raskutti

In clinical applications, the utility of segmentation models is often based on the accuracy of derived downstream metrics such as organ size, rather than by the pixel-level accuracy of the segmentation masks themselves. Thus, uncertainty…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-03 Matt Y. Cheung , Ashok Veeraraghavan , Guha Balakrishnan

Access to multiple predictive models trained for the same task, whether in regression or classification, is increasingly common in many applications. Aggregating their predictive uncertainties to produce reliable and efficient uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-06 Nabil Alami , Jad Zakharia , Souhaib Ben Taieb

We investigate the integration of Conformal Prediction (CP) with supervised learning on deterministically encrypted data, aiming to bridge the gap between rigorous uncertainty quantification and privacy-preserving machine learning. Using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Alexander David Balinsky , Dominik Krzeminski , Alexander Balinsky

Conformal predictive systems are sets of predictive distributions with theoretical out-of-sample calibration guarantees. The calibration guarantees are typically that the set of predictions contains a forecast distribution whose prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Sam Allen , Enrico Pescara , Johanna Ziegel

Continual learning aims to acquire new tasks while preserving performance on previously learned ones, but most methods struggle with catastrophic forgetting. Existing approaches typically treat all layers uniformly, often trading stability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-29 Hengyi Wu , Zhenyi Wang , Heng Huang

Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Claes Lundström

We discuss a concept denoted as Conformal Prediction (CP) in this paper. While initially stemming from the world of machine learning, it was never applied or analyzed in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting. Therefore, we…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-17 Christopher Kath , Florian Ziel

With the advancement of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, high-precision indoor positioning has become essential for Location-Based Services (LBS) in complex indoor environments. Fingerprint-based localization is popular, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Zhiyi Zhou , Hexin Peng , Hongyu Long

Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Vladimir Vovk , Ivan Petej , Ilia Nouretdinov , Valery Manokhin , Alex Gammerman

Conformal prediction is a popular uncertainty quantification method that augments a base predictor to return sets of predictions with statistically valid coverage guarantees. However, current methods are often computationally expensive and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Laura Lützow , Michael Eichelbeck , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Matthias Althoff

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool for constructing prediction intervals for black-box models, providing a finite sample coverage guarantee for exchangeable data. However, this exchangeability is compromised when some entries of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-09 Qian Peng , Yajie Bao , Haojie Ren , Zhaojun Wang , Changliang Zou

Split conformal prediction (CP) is arguably the most popular CP method for uncertainty quantification, enjoying both academic interest and widespread deployment. However, the original theoretical analysis of split CP makes the crucial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-26 Roberto I. Oliveira , Paulo Orenstein , Thiago Ramos , João Vitor Romano

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. The standard approach to conformal prediction relies on comparing the ranks of prediction scores: under exchangeability, the rank of a future…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan