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Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in black box Neural Networks (NNs) is critical when deployed in real-world settings such as healthcare. Recent works using Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods have shown how a unified predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-29 Utkarsh Sarawgi , Wazeer Zulfikar , Rishab Khincha , Pattie Maes

We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Xing Yan , Yonghua Su , Wenxuan Ma

Ensemble models often achieve higher accuracy than single learners, but their ability to maintain small generalization gaps is not always well understood. This study examines how ensembles balance accuracy and overfitting across four…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Zubair Ahmed Mohammad

This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-04 Markus Holopainen , Peter Sarlin

Ensembling multiple predictions is a widely used technique for improving the accuracy of various machine learning tasks. One obvious drawback of ensembling is its higher execution cost during inference. In this paper, we first describe our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-11 Hiroshi Inoue

Neural network potentials (NNPs) combine the computational efficiency of classical interatomic potentials with the high accuracy and flexibility of the ab initio methods used to create the training set, but can also result in unphysical…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-01-24 Leonid Kahle , Federico Zipoli

Epistemic uncertainty is crucial for safety-critical applications and data acquisition tasks. Yet, we find an important phenomenon in deep learning models: an epistemic uncertainty collapse as model complexity increases, challenging the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Andreas Kirsch

Ensemble methods in machine learning aim to improve prediction accuracy by combining multiple models. This is achieved by ensuring diversity among predictors to capture different data aspects. Homogeneous ensembles use identical models,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-11-04 Emiliano Tolotti , Enrico Blanzieri , Davide Pastorello

To facilitate robust and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs), it is essential to quantify the reliability of their generations through uncertainty estimation. While recent efforts have made significant advancements by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Rui Li , Jing Long , Muge Qi , Heming Xia , Lei Sha , Peiyi Wang , Zhifang Sui

Existing popular unsupervised embedding learning methods focus on enhancing the instance-level local discrimination of the given unlabeled images by exploring various negative data. However, the existed sample outliers which exhibit large…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Jiahuan Zhou , Yansong Tang , Bing Su , Ying Wu

Deep learning models have demonstrated remarkable success in various fields, including seismology. However, one major challenge in deep learning is the presence of mislabeled examples. Additionally, accurately estimating model uncertainty…

Trust is a crucial factor affecting the adoption of machine learning (ML) models. Qualitative studies have revealed that end-users, particularly in the medical domain, need models that can express their uncertainty in decision-making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-21 Andrew Houston , Georgina Cosma

Reward models (RMs) are essential for aligning large language models (LLM) with human expectations. However, existing RMs struggle to capture the stochastic and uncertain nature of human preferences and fail to assess the reliability of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-13 Xingzhou Lou , Dong Yan , Wei Shen , Yuzi Yan , Jian Xie , Junge Zhang

In real-world clinical settings, data distributions evolve over time, with a continuous influx of new, limited disease cases. Therefore, class incremental learning is of great significance, i.e., deep learning models are required to learn…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Yifei Yao , Hanrong Zhang

Efficiently and meaningfully estimating prediction uncertainty is important for exploration in active learning campaigns in materials discovery, where samples with high uncertainty are interpreted as containing information missing from the…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-11-25 Ashley S. Dale , Kangming Li , Brian DeCost , Hao Wan , Yuchen Han , Yao Fehlis , Jason Hattrick-Simpers

In resource-constrained and low-latency settings, uncertainty estimates must be efficiently obtained. Deep Ensembles provide robust epistemic uncertainty (EU) but require training multiple full-size models. BatchEnsemble aims to deliver…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Anton Zamyatin , Patrick Indri , Sagar Malhotra , Thomas Gärtner

Ensemble techniques are powerful approaches that combine several weak learners to build a stronger one. As a meta learning framework, ensemble techniques can easily be applied to many machine learning techniques. In this paper we propose a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2017-11-15 Hamideh Hajiabadi , Diego Molla-Aliod , Reza Monsefi

In Machine Learning, ensemble methods have been receiving a great deal of attention. Techniques such as Bagging and Boosting have been successfully applied to a variety of problems. Nevertheless, such techniques are still susceptible to the…

Purpose: The localisation and segmentation of individual bones is an important preprocessing step in many planning and navigation applications. It is, however, a time-consuming and repetitive task if done manually. This is true not only for…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-22 Eva Schnider , Antal Huck , Mireille Toranelli , Georg Rauter , Azhar Zam , Magdalena Müller-Gerbl , Philippe Cattin

To build robust, fair, and safe AI systems, we would like our classifiers to say ``I don't know'' when facing test examples that are difficult or fall outside of the training classes.The ubiquitous strategy to predict under uncertainty is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-22 Kamalika Chaudhuri , David Lopez-Paz