Related papers: Non-parametric estimation of conditional quantiles…

We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…

We discuss nonparametric tests for parametric specifications of regression quantiles. The test is based on the comparison of parametric and nonparametric fits of these quantiles. The nonparametric fit is a Nadaraya-Watson quantile smoothing…

This paper proposes a model-free nonparametric estimator of conditional quantile of a time series regression model where the covariate vector is repeated many times for different values of the response. This type of data is abound in…

This article studies a trimmed version of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator to estimate the unknown non-parametric regression function. The characterization of the estimator through minimization problem is established, and its pointwise…

In this paper we consider the semi-parametric estimation of extreme quantiles of a right heavy-tail model. We propose a new Log Probability Weighted Moment estimator for extreme quantiles, which is obtained from the estimators of the shape…

An extensible statistical framework for detecting anomalous time series including those with heavy-tailed distributions and non-stationarity in higher-order moments is introduced based on penalized likelihood distributional regression.…

In this paper, we investigate the extreme-value methodology, to propose an improved estimator of the conditional tail expectation ($CTE$) for a loss distribution with a finite mean but infinite variance. The present work introduces a new…

This paper proposes a fast and scalable method for uncertainty quantification of machine learning models' predictions. First, we show the principled way to measure the uncertainty of predictions for a classifier based on Nadaraya-Watson's…

We consider nonparametric prediction with multiple covariates, in particular categorical or functional predictors, or a mixture of both. The method proposed bases on an extension of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator where a kernel function is…

This paper deals with a nonparametric Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimator of the transition density function computed from independent continuous observations of a diffusion process. A risk bound is established on this estimator. The paper also…

We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…

We present a nonparametric family of estimators for the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution when covariate information is available. Our estimators are based on a weighted sum of the log-spacings between some selected observations.…

Forecasting multivariate time series is a computationally intensive task challenged by extreme or redundant samples. Recent resampling methods aim to increase training efficiency by reweighting samples based on their running losses.…

This paper is devoted to the nonparametric estimation of the derivative of the regression function in a nonparametric regression model. We implement a very efficient and easy to handle statistical procedure based on the derivative of the…

While both classical and neural network classifiers can achieve high accuracy, they fall short on offering uncertainty bounds on their predictions, making them unfit for safety-critical applications. Existing kernel-based classifiers that…

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator for the estimation of the regression function in a semiparametric regression model. On the one hand, we make use of the recursive version of the sliced inverse…

In this paper, we consider a generic scheme that allows building weighted versions of various quantile estimators, such as traditional quantile estimators based on linear interpolation of two order statistics, the Harrell-Davis quantile…

We use bias-reduced estimators of high quantiles, of heavy-tailed distributions, to introduce a new estimator of the mean in the case of infinite second moment. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established and checked,…

In this paper, we propose a new nonparametric estimator of time-varying forecast combination weights. When the number of individual forecasts is small, we study the asymptotic properties of the local linear estimator. When the number of…

This study proposes a debiasing method for smooth nonparametric estimators. While machine learning techniques such as random forests and neural networks have demonstrated strong predictive performance, their theoretical properties remain…