Related papers: Forecasting mortality rates with functional signat…
We propose a novel extension of the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) model to forecast mortality rates by integrating randomized signatures, referred to as the HU model with randomized signatures (HUrs). Unlike truncated signatures, which grow…
Mortality forecasting plays a pivotal role in insurance and financial risk management of life insurers, pension funds, and social securities. Mortality data is usually high-dimensional in nature and favors factor model approaches to…
We study the modeling and forecasting of high-dimensional functional time series (HDFTS), which can be cross-sectionally correlated and temporally dependent. We introduce a decomposition of the HDFTS into two distinct components: a…
In mortality modelling, cohort effects are often taken into consideration as they add insights about variations in mortality across different generations. Statistically speaking, models such as the Renshaw-Haberman model may provide a…
A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…
A robust multilevel functional data method is proposed to forecast age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses a robust multilevel…
Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, ethnic group and socioeconomic status. In making social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is important not…
Several approaches have been developed for forecasting mortality using the stochastic model. In particular, the Lee-Carter model has become widely used and there have been various extensions and modifications proposed to attain a broader…
We consider a compositional data analysis approach to forecasting the age distribution of death counts. Using the age-specific period life-table death counts in Australia obtained from the Human Mortality Database, the compositional data…
We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…
\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…
We investigate joint modeling of longevity trends using the spatial statistical framework of Gaussian Process regression. Our analysis is motivated by the Human Mortality Database (HMD) that provides unified raw mortality tables for nearly…
This study explores the potential of zero-shot time series forecasting, an innovative approach leveraging pre-trained foundation models, to forecast mortality rates without task-specific fine-tuning. We evaluate two state-of-the-art…
The decline in interest rates and economic stabilization has heightened the importance of accurate mortality rate forecasting, particularly in insurance and pension markets. Multi-step-ahead predictions are crucial for public health,…
This paper introduces a prognostic method called FLASH that addresses the problem of joint modelling of longitudinal data and censored durations when a large number of both longitudinal and time-independent features are available. In the…
The application of data-driven remaining useful life (RUL) prediction has long been constrained by the availability of large amount of degradation data. Mainstream solutions such as domain adaptation and meta-learning still rely on large…
When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how…
Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnicity. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in developing social…
Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This paper…
In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…