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Consider a population evolving from year to year through three seasons: spring, summer and winter. Every spring starts with $N$ dormant individuals waking up independently of each other according to a given distribution. Once an individual…

Estimation of epidemiological and population parameters from molecular sequence data has become central to the understanding of infectious disease dynamics. Various models have been proposed to infer details of the dynamics that describe…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-12-25 Alex Popinga , Tim Vaughan , Tanja Stadler , Alexei Drummond

The coalescence of compact binaries containing neutron stars or black holes is one of the most promising signals for advanced ground-based laser interferometer gravitational-wave detectors, with the first direct detections expected over the…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2015-09-02 Simon Stevenson , Frank Ohme , Stephen Fairhurst

We investigate a new model for populations evolving in a spatial continuum. This model can be thought of as a spatial version of the Lambda-Fleming-Viot process. It explicitly incorporates both small scale reproduction events and large…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-03-22 N. H. Barton , A. M. Etheridge , A. Veber

The coalescent revolutionised theoretical population genetics, simplifying, or making possible for the first time, many analyses, proofs, and derivations, and offering crucial insights about the way in which the structure of data in samples…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-09 Peter Donnelly , Stephen Leslie

When an infectious disease outbreak is of a relatively small size, describing the ancestry of a sample of infected individuals is difficult because most ancestral models assume large population sizes. Given a set of infected individuals, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-31 Xavier Didelot , David Helekal , Ian Roberts

Recruitment dynamics, or the distribution of the number of offspring among individuals, is central for understanding ecology and evolution. Sweepstakes reproduction (heavy right-tailed offspring number distribution) is central for…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-16 Bjarki Eldon

Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Gregor Zens

Spatial models where growth is limited to the edge of the expansions have been instrumental to understand the population dynamics and the clone size distribution in growing cellular populations, such as microbial colonies and avascular…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-06-08 Armin Eghdami , Jayson Paulose , Diana Fusco

Population balance framework is a useful tool that can be used to describe size distribution of droplets in a liquid-liquid dispersion. Breakup and coalescence models provide closures for mathematical formulation of the population balance…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2015-11-25 Marcin Traczyk , Robert Sawko , Chris Thompson

The origins of merging compact binaries observed by gravitational-wave detectors remains highly uncertain. Several astrophysical channels may contribute to the overall merger rate, with distinct formation processes imprinted on the…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-07-03 Jack Heinzel , Matthew Mould , Sofía Álvarez-López , Salvatore Vitale

We identify a new natural coalescent structure, which we call the seed-bank coalescent, that describes the gene genealogy of populations under the influence of a strong seed-bank effect, where "dormant forms" of individuals (such as seeds…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-10 Jochen Blath , Adrián González Casanova , Noemi Kurt , Maite Wilke-Berenguer

Consider a structured population consisting of $d$ colonies, with migration rates proportional to a positive parameter $K$. We sample $N_K$ individuals, distributed evenly across the $d$ colonies, and trace their ancestral lineages backward…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Fernando Cordero , Sophia-Marie Mellis , Emmanuel Schertzer

Coalescents with multiple collisions (also called Lambda-coalescents or simple exchangeable coalescents) are used as models of genealogies. We study a new class of Markovian coalescent processes connected to a population model with…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-02 Clément Foucart

Statistical inference of evolutionary parameters from molecular sequence data relies on coalescent models to account for the shared genealogical ancestry of the samples. However, inferential algorithms do not scale to available data sets. A…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-10 Lorenzo Cappello , Julia A. Palacios

Multitype branching processes with immigration in one type are used to model the dynamics of stage-structured plant populations. Parametric inference is first carried out when count data of all types are observed. Statistical…

Applications · Statistics 2009-02-27 Catherine Laredo , Olivier David , Aurélie Garnier

We introduce phylodyn, an R package for phylodynamic analysis based on gene genealogies. The package main functionality is Bayesian nonparametric estimation of effective population size fluctuations over time. Our implementation includes…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-10-20 Michael D. Karcher , Julia A. Palacios , Shiwei Lan , Vladimir N. Minin

Recent improvements in high-throughput genotyping and sequencing technologies have afforded the collection of massive, genome-wide datasets of DNA information from hundreds of thousands of individuals. These datasets, in turn, provide…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-12-19 Pier Francesco Palamara

Studying how diverse human populations are related is of historical and anthropological interest, in addition to providing a realistic null model for testing for signatures of natural selection or disease associations. Furthermore,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-07-10 Jeffrey P. Spence , Matthias Steinrücken , Jonathan Terhorst , Yun S. Song

The genetic diversity of a species is shaped by its recent evolutionary history and can be used to infer demographic events or selective sweeps. Most inference methods are based on the null hypothesis that natural selection is a weak or…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-03-05 Richard A. Neher , Oskar Hallatschek