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An important use of machine learning is to learn what people value. What posts or photos should a user be shown? Which jobs or activities would a person find rewarding? In each case, observations of people's past choices can inform our…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-12-21 Owain Evans , Andreas Stuhlmueller , Noah D. Goodman

Decision-making AI agents are often faced with two important challenges: the depth of the planning horizon, and the branching factor due to having many choices. Hierarchical reinforcement learning methods aim to solve the first problem, by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Andrei Nica , Khimya Khetarpal , Doina Precup

Online experiments are a fundamental component of the development of web-facing products. Given their large user-bases, even small product improvements can have a large impact on user engagement or profits on an absolute scale. As a result,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-23 Jacopo Soriano

Pricing decisions of companies require an understanding of the causal effect of a price change on the demand. When real-life pricing experiments are infeasible, data-driven decision-making must be based on alternative data sources such as…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-03 Lauri Valkonen , Santtu Tikka , Jouni Helske , Juha Karvanen

This paper provides a behavioral analysis of conservatism in beliefs. I introduce a new axiom, Dynamic Conservatism, that relaxes Dynamic Consistency when information and prior beliefs "conflict." When the agent is a subjective expected…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-02-02 Matthew Kovach

Reaction time studies with computers investigate how and how quickly participants respond to changing sensory input. They promise simple and precise measurement of time and inputs and offer interesting insights into human behavior. However,…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-01-09 Désirée Scholz , Linda Graefe , Thomas M. Prinz

We study preferences estimated from finite choice experiments and provide sufficient conditions for convergence to a unique underlying "true" preference. Our conditions are weak, and therefore valid in a wide range of economic environments.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-11-03 Christopher P. Chambers , Federico Echenique , Nicolas Lambert

An unconventional approach for optimal stopping under model ambiguity is introduced. Besides ambiguity itself, we take into account how ambiguity-averse an agent is. This inclusion of ambiguity attitude, via an $\alpha$-maxmin nonlinear…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-15 Yu-Jui Huang , Xiang Yu

Robustness is often regarded as a critical future challenge for real-world applications, where stability is essential. However, as models often learn tasks in a similar order, we hypothesize that easier tasks will be easier regardless of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Shir Ashury-Tahan , Ariel Gera , Elron Bandel , Michal Shmueli-Scheuer , Leshem Choshen

We define causal estimands for experiments on single time series, extending the potential outcome framework to dealing with temporal data. Our approach allows the estimation of some of these estimands and exact randomization based p-values…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-17 Iavor Bojinov , Neil Shephard

There are many scenarios where short- and long-term causal effects of an intervention are different. For example, low-quality ads may increase short-term ad clicks but decrease the long-term revenue via reduced clicks. This work, therefore,…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-23 Lu Cheng , Ruocheng Guo , Huan Liu

This study proposes a tractable stochastic choice model to identify motivations for prosocial behavior, and to explore alternative motivations of deliberate randomization beyond ex-ante fairness concerns. To represent social preferences, we…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-05-01 Yosuke Hashidate , Keisuke Yoshihara

We uncover a close link between outside options and risk attitude: when a decision-maker gains access to an outside option, her behaviour becomes less risk-averse, and conversely, any observed decrease of risk-aversion can be explained by…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-19 Gregorio Curello , Ludvig Sinander , Mark Whitmeyer

In this paper we study a rational inattention model in environments where the decision maker faces uncertainty about the true prior distribution over states. The decision maker seeks to select a stochastic choice rule over a finite set of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-05-08 Emerson Melo

This paper studies the persuasion of a receiver who accesses information only if she exerts costly attention effort. A sender designs an experiment to persuade the receiver to take a specific action. The experiment affects the receiver's…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-04-07 Pietro Dall'Ara

We consider the design of experiments to evaluate treatments that are administered by self-interested agents, each seeking to achieve the highest evaluation and win the experiment. For example, in an advertising experiment, a company wishes…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-18 Panos Toulis , David C. Parkes , Elery Pfeffer , James Zou

Justification bias, wherein retirees may report poorer health to rationalize their retirement, poses a major concern to the widely-used measure of self-assessed health in retirement studies. This paper introduces a novel method for testing…

General Economics · Economics 2024-03-12 Jiayi Wen , Zixi Ye , Xuan Zhang

Inverse classification, the process of making meaningful perturbations to a test point such that it is more likely to have a desired classification, has previously been addressed using data from a single static point in time. Such an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-15 Michael T. Lash , W. Nick Street

Traditional recommender systems based on revealed preferences often fail to capture the fundamental duality in user behavior, where consumption choices are driven by both inherent value (enrichment) and instant appeal (temptation).…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-07-24 Md Sanzeed Anwar , Paramveer S. Dhillon , Grant Schoenebeck

Anytime-valid tests allow evidence to be checked during data collection: one can either continue testing or stop and reject the null while still controlling type-I error. Yet, in many applications rejection is useful only if it comes soon…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-08 Eugenio Clerico , Tobias Wegel , Iskander Azangulov , Patrick Rebeschini