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We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution,…
We study fluctuations of mean-field interacting particle systems around their McKean--Vlasov limit. Our main result provides a uniform-in-time quantitative central limit theorem for the fluctuation process, with convergence rate of order…
The position $x(t)$ of a particle diffusing in a one-dimensional uncorrelated and time dependent random medium is simply Gaussian distributed in the typical direction, i.e. along the ray $x=v_0 t$, where $v_0$ is the average drift. However,…
We study the problem of estimating a sequence of evolving probability distributions from historical data, where the underlying distribution changes over time in a nonstationary and nonparametric manner. To capture gradual changes, we…
We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…
Recently, a novel linear model predictive control algorithm based on a physics-informed Gaussian Process has been introduced, whose realizations strictly follow a system of underlying linear ordinary differential equations with constant…
We consider the fully-coupled McKean-Vlasov equation with multi-time-scale potentials, and all the coefficients depend on the distributions of both the slow component and the fast motion. By studying the smoothness of the solution of the…
The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…
We develop a foundational framework for inverse problems governed by evolutionary partial differential equations (PDEs) on the Wasserstein space of probability measures. While the forward problems for such transport-type PDEs have been…
We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for this class of models, typically using sequential Monte Carlo,…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a well-known nonparametric Bayesian inference technique, but they suffer from scalability problems for large sample sizes, and their performance can degrade for non-stationary or spatially heterogeneous data. In…
Prediction is a central task of statistics and machine learning, yet many inferential settings provide only partial information, typically in the form of moment constraints or estimating equations. We develop a finite, fully Bayesian…
In this work we investigate the long-time behavior, that is the existence and characterization of invariant measures as well as convergence of transition probabilities, for Markov processes obtained as the unique mild solution to stochastic…
We develop statistical models for samples of distribution-valued stochastic processes featuring time-indexed univariate distributions, with emphasis on functional principal component analysis. The proposed model presents an intrinsic rather…
High dimensional time series are endemic in applications of machine learning such as robotics (sensor data), computational biology (gene expression data), vision (video sequences) and graphics (motion capture data). Practical nonlinear…
We consider a quantum system dynamics caused by successive selective and non-selective measurements of the probe coupled to the system. For the finite measurement rate $\tau^{-1}$ and the system-probe interaction strength $\gamma$ we derive…
We consider additive functionals of systems of random measures whose initial configuration is given by a Poisson point process, and whose individual components evolve according to arbitrary Markovian or non-Markovian measure valued…
We consider nonparametric statistical inference on a periodic interaction potential $W$ from noisy discrete space-time measurements of solutions $\rho=\rho_W$ of the nonlinear McKean-Vlasov equation, describing the probability density of…
We study the long time statistics of a class of semi--linear damped wave equations with polynomial nonlinearities and perturbed by additive Gaussian noise in dimensions 2 and 3. We find that if sufficiently many directions in the phase…
In this paper, we study semiparametric inference for linear multivariate Hawkes processes, a class of point processes widely used to describe self and mutually exciting phenomena. We establish a convolution theorem giving the best limiting…