Related papers: Fast and flexible inference for spatial extremes
In many applications of time series models, such as climate analysis and social media analysis, we are often interested in extreme events, such as heatwave, wind gust, and burst of topics. These time series data usually exhibit a…
Modelling multivariate extreme events is essential when extrapolating beyond the range of observed data. Parametric models that are suitable for real-world extremes must be flexible -- particularly in their ability to capture asymmetric…
In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…
A geometric representation for multivariate extremes, based on the shapes of scaled sample clouds in light-tailed margins and their so-called limit sets, has recently been shown to connect several existing extremal dependence concepts.…
The max-stable process is an asymptotically justified model for spatial extremes. In particular, we focus on the hierarchical extreme-value process (HEVP), which is a particular max-stable process that is conducive to Bayesian computing.…
Nonstationarity in spatial and spatio-temporal processes is ubiquitous in environmental datasets, but is not often addressed in practice, due to a scarcity of statistical software packages that implement nonstationary models. In this…
Given a statistical model, we propose a novel estimation method that yields randomised estimators for the unknown distribution of an observed random variable. We establish non-asymptotic bounds for the performance of these estimators and…
Non-stationary extremal dependence, whereby the relationship between the extremes of multiple variables evolves over time, is commonly observed in many environmental and financial data sets. However, most multivariate extreme value models…
We present a novel Neural Embedding Spatio-Temporal (NEST) point process model for spatio-temporal discrete event data and develop an efficient imitation learning (a type of reinforcement learning) based approach for model fitting. Despite…
Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…
Two dynamical indicators, the local dimension and the extremal index, used to quantify persistence in phase space have been developed and applied to different data across various disciplines. These are computed using the asymptotic limit of…
In modeling spatial extremes, the dependence structure is classically inferred by assuming that block maxima derive from max-stable processes. Weather stations provide daily records rather than just block maxima. The point process approach…
Skew-symmetric families of distributions such as the skew-normal and skew-$t$ represent supersets of the normal and $t$ distributions, and they exhibit richer classes of extremal behaviour. By defining a non-stationary skew-normal process,…
The stochastic frontier model with heterogeneous technical efficiency explained by exoge-nous variables is augmented with a spatial-temporal component, a generalization relaxing the panel independence assumption in a panel data. The…
This paper provides the basis for new methods of inference for max-stable processes \xi\ on general spaces that admit a certain incremental representation, which, in important cases, has a much simpler structure than the max-stable process…
Peaks-over-threshold analysis using the generalized Pareto distribution is widely applied in modelling tails of univariate random variables, but much information may be lost when complex extreme events are studied using univariate results.…
Panel data arise in a wide range of application areas, and developing modelling methods for extreme values under such a setup is essential for reliable risk assessment and management. When choosing to model the marginal distributions of…
Let $X_{i,n},n\in \mathbb{N},1\leq i\leq n$, be a triangular array of independent $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued Gaussian random vectors with correlation matrices $\Sigma_{i,n}$. We give necessary conditions under which the row-wise maxima converge…
Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes $(Z(t))$ on $\mathbb{Z}^p$ form a usual set-up for modeling $SIR$-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on $(Z(t))$ is not easy to be achieved.…
When modeling a vector of risk variables, extreme scenarios are often of special interest. The peaks-over-thresholds method hinges on the notion that, asymptotically, the excesses over a vector of high thresholds follow a multivariate…