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Simmering debates leading to polarization are observed in many domains. Although empirical findings show a strong correlation between this phenomenon and modularity of a social network, still little is known about the actual mechanisms…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-11-28 Patryk Siedlecki , Janusz Szwabiński , Tomasz Weron

Machine-learning systems used in survey-based social measurement require uncertainty estimates that are reliable across population subgroups, not merely valid in aggregate. We study ordinal conformal prediction for five-level AI-attitude…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Amir Rafe , Subasish Das

Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

Social science researchers are generally accustomed to treating ordinal variables as though they are continuous. In this paper, we consider how identification constraints in ordinal factor analysis can mimic the treatment of ordinal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-09 Edgar C. Merkle , Sonja D. Winter , Ellen Fitzsimmons

We investigate the emergence of periodic behavior in opinion dynamics and its underlying geometry. For this, we use a bounded-confidence model with contrarian agents in a convolution social network. This means that agents adapt their…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Bernard Chazelle , Kritkorn Karntikoon , Jakob Nogler

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

Ordinal regression is a classification task where classes have an order and prediction error increases the further the predicted class is from the true class. The standard approach for modeling ordinal data involves fitting parallel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-16 Fred Lu , Francis Ferraro , Edward Raff

This paper shows how, in a quasi metric space, an inexact proximal algorithm with a generalized perturbation term appears to be a nice tool for Behavioral Sciences (Psychology, Economics, Management, Game theory,...). More precisely, the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-04-01 G. C. Bento , A. Soubeyran

In two-strategy decision-making problems, individuals often imitate the highest earners or choose either the common or rare strategy. Individuals who benefit from the common strategy are conformists, whereas those who profit by choosing the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-02-03 Azadeh Aghaeeyan , Pouria Ramazi

The goal of ordinal embedding is to represent items as points in a low-dimensional Euclidean space given a set of constraints in the form of distance comparisons like "item $i$ is closer to item $j$ than item $k$". Ordinal constraints like…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-24 Lalit Jain , Kevin Jamieson , Robert Nowak

We study a model describing the spread of a globalized culture in a population of individuals localized at the nodes of a social network. The influence of this globalized culture, assumed to be foreign to the local culture, is measured by a…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2007-05-23 Nino Boccara

Compatibility between items, such as clothes and shoes, is a major factor among customer's purchasing decisions. However, learning "compatibility" is challenging due to (1) broader notions of compatibility than those of similarity, (2) the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-12-06 Yong-Siang Shih , Kai-Yueh Chang , Hsuan-Tien Lin , Min Sun

Conformal predictive systems are sets of predictive distributions with theoretical out-of-sample calibration guarantees. The calibration guarantees are typically that the set of predictions contains a forecast distribution whose prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Sam Allen , Enrico Pescara , Johanna Ziegel

Understanding and quantifying polarization in social systems is important because of many reasons. It could for instance help to avoid segregation and conflicts in the society or to control polarized debates and predict their outcomes. In…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-10-11 Tyll Krueger , Janusz Szwabiński , Tomasz Weron

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

The reliability of machine learning systems critically assumes that the associations between features and labels remain similar between training and test distributions. However, unmeasured variables, such as confounders, break this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-17 Megha Srivastava , Tatsunori Hashimoto , Percy Liang

The standard Axelrod model of cultural dissemination, based on discrete cultural traits, exhibits a non-equilibrium phase transition but is inherently limited by its inability to continuously probe the critical behavior. We address this…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-01-01 Paulo R. A. Campos , Sandro M. Reia , José F. Fontanari

Given a graph with node attributes, what neighborhoods are anomalous? To answer this question, one needs a quality score that utilizes both structure and attributes. Popular existing measures either quantify the structure only and ignore…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-01-26 Bryan Perozzi , Leman Akoglu

A causal set is a partially ordered set on a countably infinite ground-set such that each element is above finitely many others. A natural extension of a causal set is an enumeration of its elements which respects the order. We bring…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-09-22 Graham Brightwell , Malwina Luczak

Cellular phones are now offering an ubiquitous means for scientists to observe life: how people act, move and respond to external influences. They can be utilized as measurement devices of individual persons and for groups of people of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-12 Shao-Meng Qin , Hannu Verkasalo , Mikael Mohtaschemi , Tuomo Hartonen , Mikko Alava