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We develop an Onsager-Machlup-type theory for nonequilibrium semi-Markov processes. Our main result is an exact large time asymptotics for the joint probability of the occupation times and the currents in the system, establishing some…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-13 Christian Maes , Karel Netočný , Bram Wynants

We study time-inhomogeneous Markov chains to obtain quantitative results on their asymptotic behavior. We use Poincar\'e, Nash, and logarithmic-Sobolev inequalities. We assume that our Markov chain admits a finite invariant measure at each…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-25 Nordine Moumeni

We address a class of Markov jump linear systems that are characterized by the underlying Markov process being time-inhomogeneous with a priori unknown transition probabilities. Necessary and sufficient conditions for uniform stochastic…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-11-24 Collin C. Lutz , Daniel J. Stilwell

The Fokker-Planck equation has been very useful for studying dynamic behavior of stochastic differential equations driven by Gaussian noises. In this paper, we derive a Fractional Fokker--Planck equation for the probability distribution of…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2009-11-10 D. Schertzer , M. Larchev , J. Duan , V. V. Yanovsky , S. Lovejoy

Functional inequalities such as the Poincar\'e and log-Sobolev inequalities quantify convergence to equilibrium in continuous-time Markov chains by linking generator properties to variance and entropy decay. However, many applications,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-20 Bastian Hilder , Patrick van Meurs , Upanshu Sharma

We consider the fluctuations of a time-integrated particle current around an atypical value in a generic stochastic Markov process involving classical particles with two-site interaction and hardcore repulsion on a finite one-dimensional…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-01-20 Pegah Torkaman , Farhad H. Jafarpour

We analyze some basic issues associated with Generalized Poisson-Kac (GPK) stochastic processes, starting from the extended notion of the Markovian condition. The extended Markovian nature of GPK processes is established, and the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-03-08 Massimiliano Giona , Antonio Brasiello , Silvestro Crescitelli

We study ergodic properties of some Markov chains models in random environments when the random Markov kernels that define the dynamic satisfy some usual drift and small set conditions but with random coefficients. In particular, we adapt a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-16 Lionel Truquet

We interpret the Leggett-Garg (LG) inequality as a kind of contextual probabilistic inequality in which one combines data collected in experiments performed for three different contexts. In the original version of the inequality these…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-18 Masanari Asano , Takahisa Hashimoto , Andrei Khrennikov , Masanori Ohya , Yoshiharu Tanaka

In the present paper we obtain sufficient conditions for the existence of equivalent martingale measures for L\'{e}vy-driven moving averages and other non-Markovian jump processes. The conditions that we obtain are, under mild assumptions,…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-28 Andreas Basse-O'Connor , Mikkel Slot Nielsen , Jan Pedersen

This paper introduces the concept of random context representations for the transition probabilities of a finite-alphabet stochastic process. Processes with these representations generalize context tree processes (a.k.a. variable length…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-09 Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira

This article establishes sufficient conditions for a linear-in-time bound on the non-asymptotic variance of particle approximations of time-homogeneous Feynman-Kac formulae. These formulae appear in a wide variety of applications including…

Computation · Statistics 2012-02-14 Nick Whiteley , Nikolas Kantas , Ajay Jasra

We establish two concentration inequalities for nonlinear stochastic system under time-varying contraction conditions. The key to our approach is an energy function termed Averaged Moment Generating Function (AMGF). By combining it with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-03 Zishun Liu , Liqian Ma , Hongzhe Yu , Yongxin Chen

This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-07 Zeyu Zheng , Harsha Honnappa , Peter W. Glynn

In this work, we consider a finite-state inhomogeneous-time Markov chain whose probabilities of transition from one state to another tend to decrease over time. This can be seen as a cooling of the dynamics of an underlying Markov chain. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-08 Florian Bouguet , Bertrand Cloez

We study the problem of characterizing the expected hitting times for a robust generalization of continuous-time Markov chains. This generalization is based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, and the models with which we work…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-28 Thomas Krak

Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-08 Ben Swallow , David A. Rand , Giorgos Minas

For more than a century lattice random walks have been employed ubiquitously, both as a theoretical laboratory to develop intuition about more complex stochastic processes and as a tool to interpret a vast array of empirical observations.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-31 Luca Giuggioli , Seeralan Sarvaharman , Debraj Das , Daniel Marris , Toby Kay

Necessary and sufficient conditions for a Markov chain to be ergodic are that the chain is irreducible and aperiodic. This result is manifest in the case of random walks on finite groups by a statement about the support of the driving…

Quantum Algebra · Mathematics 2021-10-22 J. P. McCarthy

A Fokker-Planck equation approach for the treatment of non-Markovian stochastic processes is proposed. The approach is based on the introduction of fictitious trajectories sharing with the real ones their local structure and initial…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-11 Piero Olla , Luca Pignagnoli