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With the advancement of GPS, remote sensing, and computational simulations, large amounts of geospatial and spatiotemporal data are being collected at an increasing speed. Such emerging spatiotemporal big data assets, together with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Wenchong He , Zhe Jiang

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Alexander Fishkov , Kajetan Schweighofer , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Nikita Kotelevskii , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning regression is of wide interest, as it supports critical applications including sequential decision making and risk-sensitive tasks. In heteroskedastic regression, where the uncertainty of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Mikkel Jordahn , Jonas Vestergaard Jensen , James Harrison , Michael Riis Andersen , Mikkel N. Schmidt

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important for reliability assessment and enhancement of machine learning models. In deep learning, uncertainties arise not only from data, but also from the training procedure that often injects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-13 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

A model's ability to express its own predictive uncertainty is an essential attribute for maintaining clinical user confidence as computational biomarkers are deployed into real-world medical settings. In the domain of cancer digital…

High-dimensional tensor data often exhibit strong temporal correlations that appear as low-dimensional structures in the frequency domain. While the low-tubal-rank tensor model effectively captures these spectral features, making it…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Jiuqian Shang , Jingyang Li , Yang Chen

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific and engineering domains. However, DNNs can make unexpected, incorrect, yet overconfident predictions, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Wenchong He , Zhe Jiang , Tingsong Xiao , Zelin Xu , Yukun Li

The hybrid neural differentiable models mark a significant advancement in the field of scientific machine learning. These models, integrating numerical representations of known physics into deep neural networks, offer enhanced predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Deepak Akhare , Tengfei Luo , Jian-Xun Wang

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in reduction of uncertainties during both optimization and decision making processes. It can be applied to solve a variety of real-world applications in science and engineering. Bayesian…

Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Dongxia Wu , Liyao Gao , Xinyue Xiong , Matteo Chinazzi , Alessandro Vespignani , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) identifies where models lack knowledge. Traditional UQ methods, often based on Bayesian neural networks, are not suitable for pre-trained non-Bayesian models. Our study addresses quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Hanjing Wang , Qiang Ji

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks due to large training datasets and powerful transformer architecture. However, the reliability of responses from LLMs remains a question.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Tiejin Chen , Xiaoou Liu , Longchao Da , Jia Chen , Vagelis Papalexakis , Hua Wei

Over the last few years, debiased estimators have been proposed in order to establish rigorous confidence intervals for high-dimensional problems in machine learning and data science. The core argument is that the error of these estimators…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-19 Frederik Hoppe , Claudio Mayrink Verdun , Felix Krahmer , Marion I. Menzel , Holger Rauhut

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps to make trustworthy predictions based on collected observations and uncertain domain knowledge. With increased usage of deep learning in various applications, the need for efficient UQ methods that can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Olga Graf , Pablo Flores , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Timo Löhr , Paul Hofman , Gitta Kutyniok , Eyke Hüllermeier

We propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification via information bottleneck (IB-UQ) for scientific machine learning tasks, including deep neural network (DNN) regression and neural operator learning (DeepONet). Specifically, we…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-31 Ling Guo , Hao Wu , Wenwen Zhou , Yan Wang , Tao Zhou

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis
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