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We consider the problem of inferring an unknown number of clusters in replicated multinomial data. Under a model based clustering point of view, this task can be treated by estimating finite mixtures of multinomial distributions with or…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-07 Panagiotis Papastamoulis

We develop Bayesian predictive stacking for geostatistical models, where the primary inferential objective is to provide inference on the latent spatial random field and conduct spatial predictions at arbitrary locations. We exploit…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Lu Zhang , Wenpin Tang , Sudipto Banerjee

This lecture note provides a self-contained introduction to Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for parameter estimation in epidemic models. Using the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartmental…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Augustine Okolie

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…

Computation · Statistics 2023-01-24 Efthyvoulos Drousiotis , Paul G. Spirakis , Simon Maskell

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-19 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

The statistical analysis of group studies in neuroscience is particularly challenging due to the complex spatio-temporal nature of the data, its multiple levels and the inter-individual variability in brain responses. In this respect,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-15 Nicolò Margaritella , Vanda Inácio , Ruth King

Spatiotemporal datasets, which consist of spatially-referenced time series, are ubiquitous in diverse applications, such as air pollution monitoring, disease tracking, and cloud-demand forecasting. As the scale of modern datasets increases,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Feras Saad , Jacob Burnim , Colin Carroll , Brian Patton , Urs Köster , Rif A. Saurous , Matthew Hoffman

We present a federated learning approach for Bayesian model-based clustering of large-scale binary and categorical datasets. We introduce a principled 'divide and conquer' inference procedure using variational inference with local merge and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-13 Jackie Rao , Francesca L. Crowe , Tom Marshall , Sylvia Richardson , Paul D. W. Kirk

In order to identify clusters of objects with features transformed by unknown affine transformations, we develop a Bayesian cluster process which is invariant with respect to certain linear transformations of the feature space and able to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-01 Hsin-Hsiung Huang , Jie Yang

Accurate prediction of spatially dependent functional data is critical for various engineering and scientific applications. In this study, a spatial functional deep neural network model was developed with a novel non-linear modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-18 Merve Basaran , Ufuk Beyaztas , Han Lin Shang , Zaher Mundher Yaseen

In environmental studies, realistic simulations are essential for understanding complex systems. Statistical emulation with Gaussian processes (GPs) in functional data models have become a standard tool for this purpose. Traditional…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-26 R. Jacob Andros , Rajarshi Guhaniyogi , Devin Francom , Donatella Pasqualini

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-08 Gianluca Cubadda , Francesco Giancaterini , Stefano Grassi

One of the fundamental problems in network analysis is detecting community structure in multi-layer networks, of which each layer represents one type of edge information among the nodes. We propose integrative spectral clustering approaches…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-07 Sihan Huang , Haolei Weng , Yang Feng

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is currently done via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with simple proposal mechanisms. This hinders exploration efficiency and often requires long runs to deliver accurate posterior estimates. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Cheng Zhang , Frederick A. Matsen

Increased access to computing resources has led to the development of algorithms that can run efficiently on multi-core processing units or in distributed computing environments. In the context of Bayesian inference, many parallel computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-11 Daniel Würzler Barreto , Mevin B. Hooten

Several methods have been proposed in the spatial statistics literature for the analysis of big data sets in continuous domains. However, new methods for analyzing high-dimensional areal data are still scarce. Here, we propose a scalable…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-26 E. Orozco-Acosta , A. Adin , M. D. Ugarte

Bayesian inference provides a methodology for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and deep learning methods. Variational inference and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are used to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-27 Rohitash Chandra , Joshua Simmons

An innovative sampling strategy is proposed, which applies to large-scale population-based surveys targeting a rare trait that is unevenly spread over a geographical area of interest. Our proposal is characterised by the ability to tailor…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-07 Fulvia Mecatti , Charalambos Sismanidis , Emanuela Furfaro

Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Yashas Annadani , Nick Pawlowski , Joel Jennings , Stefan Bauer , Cheng Zhang , Wenbo Gong

This study introduces an integrated framework for predictive causal inference designed to overcome limitations inherent in conventional single model approaches. Specifically, we combine a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for spatial health state…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-31 Byunghee Lee , Hye Yeon Sin , Joonsung Kang