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Bitcoin is the first digital decentralized cryptocurrency that has shown a significant increase in market capitalization in recent years. The objective of this paper is to determine the predictable price direction of Bitcoin in USD by…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-06-26 S M Raju , Ali Mohammad Tarif

The rapidly evolving cryptocurrency market presents unique challenges for investment due to its inherent volatility and evolving regulatory environment. Collective price movements can be exploited to construct diversified portfolios with…

Popular Physics · Physics 2026-05-01 Ruixue Jing , Ryota Kobayashi , Luis Enrique Correa Rocha

Cryptocurrency markets present unique prediction challenges due to their extreme volatility, 24/7 operation, and hypersensitivity to news events, with existing approaches suffering from key information extraction and poor sideways market…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-10 Kairan Hong , Jinling Gan , Qiushi Tian , Yanglinxuan Guo , Rui Guo , Runnan Li

Cryptocurrency markets exhibit pronounced momentum effects and regime-dependent volatility, presenting both opportunities and challenges for systematic trading strategies. We propose AdaptiveTrend, a multi-component algorithmic trading…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Duc Bui , Thanh Nguyen

Cryptocurrency markets are characterized by extreme volatility, making accurate forecasts essential for effective risk management and informed trading strategies. Traditional deterministic (point) forecasting methods are inadequate for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-25 Grzegorz Dudek , Witold Orzeszko , Piotr Fiszeder

This work is concerned with autoregressive prediction of turning points in financial price sequences. Such turning points are critical local extrema points along a series, which mark the start of new swings. Predicting the future time of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-09-25 Ran El-Yaniv , Alexandra Faynburd

Forecasting stock and cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to high volatility and non-stationarity, influenced by factors like economic changes and market sentiment. Previous research shows that Echo State Networks (ESNs) can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Mansi Sharma , Enrico Sartor , Marc Cavazza , Helmut Prendinger

This paper presents an agent-based artificial cryptocurrency market in which heterogeneous agents buy or sell cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoins. In this market, there are two typologies of agents, Random Traders and Chartists, which…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2014-06-26 Luisanna Cocco , Giulio Concas , Michele Marchesi

This paper studies how to forecast daily closing price series of Bitcoin, using data on prices and volumes of prior days. Bitcoin price behaviour is still largely unexplored, presenting new opportunities. We compared our results with two…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-07 Nicola Uras , Lodovica Marchesi , Michele Marchesi , Roberto Tonelli

This paper offers a thorough examination of the univariate predictability in cryptocurrency time-series. By exploiting a combination of complexity measure and model predictions we explore the cryptocurrencies time-series forecasting task…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-14 Francesco Puoti , Fabrizio Pittorino , Manuel Roveri

The importance of predicting stock market prices cannot be overstated. It is a pivotal task for investors and financial institutions as it enables them to make informed investment decisions, manage risks, and ensure the stability of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-02 Aayush Shah , Mann Doshi , Meet Parekh , Nirmit Deliwala , Pramila M. Chawan

The problem of investing into a cryptocurrency market requires good understanding of the processes that regulate the price of the currency. In this paper we offer a view of a cryptocurrency market as an environment for realization of a…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-18 Misha Perepelitsa

This paper contributes a new machine learning solution for stock movement prediction, which aims to predict whether the price of a stock will be up or down in the near future. The key novelty is that we propose to employ adversarial…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-04 Fuli Feng , Huimin Chen , Xiangnan He , Ji Ding , Maosong Sun , Tat-Seng Chua

Cryptocurrencies are digital tokens built on blockchain technology, with thousands actively traded on centralized exchanges (CEXs). Unlike stocks, which are backed by real businesses, cryptocurrencies are recognized as a distinct class of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-18 Yu Zhang , Zelin Wu , Claudio Tessone

Techniques for making future predictions based upon the present and past data, has always been an area with direct application to various real life problems. We are discussing a similar problem in this paper. The problem statement is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-19 Devendra Swami , Alay Dilipbhai Shah , Subhrajeet K B Ray

This research explores a relatively unexplored area of predicting cryptocurrency staking rewards, offering potential insights to researchers and investors. We investigate two predictive methodologies: a) a straightforward sliding-window…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-23 Sauren Gupta , Apoorva Hathi Katharaki , Yifan Xu , Bhaskar Krishnamachari , Rajarshi Gupta

This paper proposes a novel trading system which plays the role of an artificial counselor for stock investment. In this paper, the stock future prices (technical features) are predicted using Support Vector Regression. Thereafter, the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-09 Hadi NekoeiQachkanloo , Benyamin Ghojogh , Ali Saheb Pasand , Mark Crowley

Bitcoin, one of the major cryptocurrencies, presents great opportunities and challenges with its tremendous potential returns accompanying high risks. The high volatility of Bitcoin and the complex factors affecting them make the study of…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-04 Qiutong Guo , Shun Lei , Qing Ye , Zhiyang Fang

Financial markets have a vital role in the development of modern society. They allow the deployment of economic resources. Changes in stock prices reflect changes in the market. In this study, we focus on predicting stock prices by deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-27 Jialin Liu , Fei Chao , Yu-Chen Lin , Chih-Min Lin

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. Many stock prediction studies focus on using…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2017-01-10 Yanshan Wang
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