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We consider the problem of boundary detection for areal data, focusing on situations where for each areal unit multiple observations are available. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the area-specific population…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Matteo Gianella , Mario Beraha , Alessandra Guglielmi

Fine resolution estimates of demographic and socioeconomic attributes are crucial for planning and policy development. While several efforts have been made to produce fine-scale gridded population estimates, socioeconomic features are…

Model-based approaches bear great promise for decision making of agents interacting with the physical world. In the context of spatial environments, different types of problems such as localisation, mapping, navigation or autonomous…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-21 Atanas Mirchev , Baris Kayalibay , Maximilian Soelch , Patrick van der Smagt , Justin Bayer

Producing reliable estimates of health and demographic indicators at fine areal scales is crucial for examining heterogeneity and supporting localized health policy. However, many surveys release outcomes only at coarser administrative…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Yunhan Wu , Finn Lindgren , Heidi A. Hanson

We consider the estimation of densities in multiple subpopulations, where the available sample size in each subpopulation greatly varies. This problem occurs in epidemiology, for example, where different diseases may share similar…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-15 Jiaming Qiu , Xiongtao Dai , Zhengyuan Zhu

A quality-Bayesian approach, combining the direct sampling method and the Bayesian inversion, is proposed to reconstruct the locations and intensities of the unknown acoustic sources using partial data. First, we extend the direct sampling…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-10 Zhaoxing Li , Yanfang Liu , Jiguang Sun , Liwei Xu

Extreme floods cause casualties, and widespread damage to property and vital civil infrastructure. We here propose a Bayesian approach for predicting extreme floods using the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution within gauged and…

We propose a neural network component, the regional aggregation layer, that makes it possible to train a pixel-level density estimator using only coarse-grained density aggregates, which reflect the number of objects in an image region. Our…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-10-24 Nathan Jacobs , Adam Kraft , Muhammad Usman Rafique , Ranti Dev Sharma

Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-23 James McInerney , Rajesh Ranganath , David M. Blei

Satellite imagery has long been an attractive data source that provides a wealth of information on human-inhabited areas. While super resolution satellite images are rapidly becoming available, little study has focused on how to extract…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-12-19 Sungwon Han , Donghyun Ahn , Hyunji Cha , Jeasurk Yang , Sungwon Park , Meeyoung Cha

It is increasingly important to generate synthetic populations with explicit coordinates rather than coarse geographic areas, yet no established methods exist to achieve this. One reason is that latitude and longitude differ from other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Jacopo Lenti , Lorenzo Costantini , Ariadna Fosch , Anna Monticelli , David Scala , Marco Pangallo

The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. We developed a…

The appropriateness of the Poisson model is frequently challenged when examining spatial count data marked by unbalanced distributions, over-dispersion, or under-dispersion. Moreover, traditional parametric models may inadequately capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Mahsa Nadifar , Andriette Bekker , Mohammad Arashi , Abel Ramoelo

We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Yutao Liu , Andrew Gelman , Qixuan Chen

Access to sustained clean cooking in India is essential to addressing the health burden of indoor air pollution from biomass fuels, but spatial inequality in cities can adversely affect uptake and effectiveness of policies amongst…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-09-20 A. P. Neto-Bradley , R. Choudhary , P. Challenor

Understanding how and why certain communities bear a disproportionate burden of disease is challenging due to the scarcity of data on these communities. Surveys provide a useful avenue for accessing hard-to-reach populations, as many…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-27 Stephanie M. Wu , Briana Joy K. Stephenson

Knowing where people live is a fundamental component of many decision making processes such as urban development, infectious disease containment, evacuation planning, risk management, conservation planning, and more. While bottom-up, survey…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-08-31 Caleb Robinson , Fred Hohman , Bistra Dilkina

Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-10 Alp Kucukelbir , David M. Blei

We present a novel Bayesian spatial disaggregation model for count data, providing fast and flexible inference at high resolution. First, it incorporates non-linear covariate effects using penalized splines, a flexible approach that is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Sara Rutten , Thomas Neyens , Elisa Duarte , Christel Faes

Landscape classification of the well-known biodiversity hotspot, Western Ghats (mountains), on the west coast of India, is an important part of a world-wide program of monitoring biodiversity. To this end, a massive vegetation data set,…

Applications · Statistics 2011-12-01 Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay , Sourabh Bhattacharya , Kajal Dihidar