Related papers: Theory and inference for multivariate autoregressi…
We consider a discrete latent variable model for two-way data arrays, which allows one to simultaneously produce clusters along one of the data dimensions (e.g. exchangeable observational units or features) and contiguous groups, or…
We propose an approach for learning the causal structure in stochastic dynamical systems with a $1$-step functional dependency in the presence of latent variables. We propose an information-theoretic approach that allows us to recover the…
Causal additive models provide a tractable yet expressive framework for causal discovery in the presence of hidden variables. When unobserved backdoor or causal paths exist between two variables, their causal relationship is often…
Data-driven, model-free analytics are natural choices for discovery and forecasting of complex, nonlinear systems. Methods that operate in the system state-space require either an explicit multidimensional state-space, or, one approximated…
We research adaptive maximum likelihood-type estimation for an ergodic diffusion process where the observation is contaminated by noise. This methodology leads to the asymptotic independence of the estimators for the variance of observation…
COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore epidemiological models which, though describing a wealth of behaviors, have previously received little attention in signal processing literature. In this work, a generalized time-varying…
We develop a new methodology for the fitting of nonstationary time series that exhibit nonlinearity, asymmetry, local persistence and changes in location scale and shape of the underlying distribution. In order to achieve this goal, we…
Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…
The autologistic model and related auto-models, commonly applied as autocovariate regression, offer distinct advantages for analysing spatially autocorrelated ecological data. However, comparative studies by Carl and K\"uhn (Ecol. Model.,…
Graphical interaction models have become an important tool for analysing multivariate time series. In these models, the interrelationships among the components of a time series are described by undirected graphs in which the vertices depict…
Ecological Momentary Assessments (EMA) capture real-time thoughts and behaviors in natural settings, producing rich longitudinal data for statistical and physiological analyses. However, the robustness of these analyses can be compromised…
In this work, we propose \texttt{TimeGrad}, an autoregressive model for multivariate probabilistic time series forecasting which samples from the data distribution at each time step by estimating its gradient. To this end, we use diffusion…
$\alpha$-stable distributions are utilised as models for heavy-tailed noise in many areas of statistics, finance and signal processing engineering. However, in general, neither univariate nor multivariate $\alpha$-stable models admit closed…
This paper revisits the identification and estimation of a class of semiparametric (distribution-free) panel data binary choice models with lagged dependent variables, exogenous covariates, and entity fixed effects. We provide a novel…
This paper presents robust inference methods for general linear hypotheses in linear panel data models with latent group structure in the coefficients. We employ a selective conditional inference approach, deriving the conditional…
Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…
We propose a new class of univariate nonstationary time series models, using the framework of modulated time series, which is appropriate for the analysis of rapidly-evolving time series as well as time series observations with missing…
We propose a method to detect model misspecifications in nonlinear causal additive and potentially heteroscedastic noise models. We aim to identify predictor variables for which we can infer the causal effect even in cases of such…
In finance, economics and many other fields, observations in a matrix form are often generated over time. For example, a set of key economic indicators are regularly reported in different countries every quarter. The observations at each…
We derive consistency and asymptotic normality results for quasi-maximum likelihood methods for drift parameters of ergodic stochastic processes observed in discrete time in an underlying continuous-time setting. The special feature of our…