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Related papers: Robust Yet Efficient Conformal Prediction Sets

200 papers

Datasets typically contain inaccuracies due to human error and societal biases, and these inaccuracies can affect the outcomes of models trained on such datasets. We present a technique for certifying whether linear regression models are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-09 Anna P. Meyer , Aws Albarghouthi , Loris D'Antoni

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

Neural networks achieve outstanding accuracy in classification and regression tasks. However, understanding their behavior still remains an open challenge that requires questions to be addressed on the robustness, explainability and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-13 Anna-Kathrin Kopetzki , Stephan Günnemann

Conformal prediction (CP) produces prediction regions with finite-sample, distribution free coverage guarantees, but its interpretation as a quantitative uncertainty tool is often left implicit. We develop a category-theoretic approach that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Michele Caprio

This tutorial focuses on efficient methods to predictive monitoring (PM), the problem of detecting at runtime future violations of a given requirement from the current state of a system. While performing model checking at runtime would…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Francesca Cairoli , Luca Bortolussi , Nicola Paoletti

Conformal risk control (CRC) is a recently proposed technique that applies post-hoc to a conventional point predictor to provide calibration guarantees. Generalizing conformal prediction (CP), with CRC, calibration is ensured for a set…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-02 Kfir M. Cohen , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Shlomo Shamai

Credal sets are sets of probability distributions that are considered as candidates for an imprecisely known ground-truth distribution. In machine learning, they have recently attracted attention as an appealing formalism for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-19 Alireza Javanmardi , David Stutz , Eyke Hüllermeier

Automated decision support systems promise to help human experts solve multiclass classification tasks more efficiently and accurately. However, existing systems typically require experts to understand when to cede agency to the system or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-03 Eleni Straitouri , Lequn Wang , Nastaran Okati , Manuel Gomez Rodriguez

Conformal inference provides a rigorous statistical framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, enabling well-calibrated prediction sets with precise coverage guarantees for any classification model. However, its reliance…

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

This paper develops novel conformal prediction methods for classification tasks that can automatically adapt to random label contamination in the calibration sample, leading to more informative prediction sets with stronger coverage…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-23 Matteo Sesia , Y. X. Rachel Wang , Xin Tong

Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Yizhou Min , Yizhou Lu , Lanqi Li , Zhen Zhang , Jiaye Teng

Post-hoc calibration of pre-trained models is critical for ensuring reliable inference, especially in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a robust post-hoc calibration framework, providing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Haifeng Wen , Hong Xing , Osvaldo Simeone

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

Deep Learning predictions with measurable confidence are increasingly desirable for real-world problems, especially in high-risk settings. The Conformal Prediction (CP) framework is a versatile solution that guarantees a maximum error rate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Julia A. Meister , Khuong An Nguyen , Stelios Kapetanakis , Zhiyuan Luo

In this paper, we present a robust adaptive model predictive control (MPC) scheme for linear systems subject to parametric uncertainty and additive disturbances. The proposed approach provides a computationally efficient formulation with…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-12 Johannes Köhler , Elisa Andina , Raffaele Soloperto , Matthias A. Müller , Frank Allgöwer

The Super Learner (SL) is a widely used ensemble method that combines predictions from a library of learners based on their predictive performance. Interval predictions are of considerable practical interest because they allow uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-27 Zhanli Wu , Fabrizio Leisen , Miguel-Angel Luque-Fernandez , F. Javier Rubio

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. We build upon the RKHS-based framework of Gibbs et al. (2023), which leverages families of covariate shifts to provide approximate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Yating Liu , Yeo Jin Jung , Zixuan Wu , So Won Jeong , Claire Donnat

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren

This paper presents a conformal prediction method for classification in highly imbalanced and open-set settings, where there are many possible classes and not all may be represented in the data. Existing approaches require a finite, known…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-16 Tianmin Xie , Yanfei Zhou , Ziyi Liang , Stefano Favaro , Matteo Sesia