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We revisit the problem of estimating the parameters of a partially observed diffusion process, consisting of a hidden state process and an observed process, with a continuous time parameter. The estimation is to be done online, i.e. the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-10-16 Simone Carlo Surace , Jean-Pascal Pfister

Electricity supply must be matched with demand at all times. This helps reduce the chances of issues such as load frequency control and the chances of electricity blackouts. To gain a better understanding of the load that is likely to be…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-03-09 Alexander J. M. Kell , A. Stephen McGough , Matthew Forshaw

This paper concerns the central issues of model robustness and sample efficiency in offline reinforcement learning (RL), which aims to learn to perform decision making from history data without active exploration. Due to uncertainties and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-01 Laixi Shi , Yuejie Chi

In this work, multiplicative stochasticity is applied to the learning rate of stochastic optimization algorithms, giving rise to stochastic learning-rate schemes. In-expectation theoretical convergence results of Stochastic Gradient Descent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-22 Theodoros Mamalis , Dusan Stipanovic , Petros Voulgaris

Online bidding is a classic optimization problem, with several applications in online decision-making, the design of interruptible systems, and the analysis of approximation algorithms. In this work, we study online bidding under…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Spyros Angelopoulos , Bertrand Simon

Adaptive collection of data is commonplace in applications throughout science and engineering. From the point of view of statistical inference however, adaptive data collection induces memory and correlation in the samples, and poses…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-07 Yash Deshpande , Adel Javanmard , Mohammad Mehrabi

Probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) is subject of increasing interest, following the demand for proper quantification of prediction uncertainty, to support the operation in complex power markets with increasing share of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Alessandro Brusaferri , Andrea Ballarino , Luigi Grossi , Fabrizio Laurini

Developing efficient solutions for inference problems in intelligent sensor networks is crucial for the next generation of location, tracking, and mapping services. This paper develops a scalable distributed probabilistic inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Parth Paritosh , Nikolay Atanasov , Sonia Martinez

Prediction intervals offer an effective tool for quantifying the uncertainty of loads in distribution systems. The traditional central PIs cannot adapt well to skewed distributions, and their offline training fashion is vulnerable to…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-30 Yufan Zhang , Honglin Wen , Qiuwei Wu , Qian Ai

To facilitate effective decision-making, precipitation datasets should include uncertainty estimates. Quantile regression with machine learning has been proposed for issuing such estimates. Distributional regression offers distinct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Georgia Papacharalampous , Hristos Tyralis , Nikolaos Doulamis , Anastasios Doulamis

In this paper we consider online distributed learning problems. Online distributed learning refers to the process of training learning models on distributed data sources. In our setting a set of agents need to cooperatively train a learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Nicola Bastianello , Apostolos I. Rikos , Karl H. Johansson

The increased demand for online prediction and the growing availability of large data sets drives the need for computationally efficient models. While exact Gaussian process regression shows various favorable theoretical properties…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-02 Armin Lederer , Alejandro Jose Ordonez Conejo , Korbinian Maier , Wenxin Xiao , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

Inference for streaming time-series is tightly coupled with the problem of Bayesian on-line state and parameter inference. In this paper we will introduce Dynamic Generalised Linear Models, the class of models often chosen to model…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-01 Rui Vieira , Darren J. Wilkinson

Many machine learning algorithms have been developed under the assumption that data sets are already available in batch form. Yet in many application domains data is only available sequentially overtime via compute nodes in different…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-10 Alfredo Garcia , Luochao Wang , Jeff Huang , Lingzhou Hong

Excessive computational cost for learning large data and streaming data can be alleviated by using stochastic algorithms, such as stochastic gradient descent and its variants. Recent advances improve stochastic algorithms on convergence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-24 Shih-Kang Chao , Guang Cheng

We consider the problem of on-line prediction of real-valued labels, assumed bounded in absolute value by a known constant, of new objects from known labeled objects. The prediction algorithm's performance is measured by the squared…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Vladimir Vovk

We present an efficient distributed online learning scheme to classify data captured from distributed, heterogeneous, and dynamic data sources. Our scheme consists of multiple distributed local learners, that analyze different streams of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-08-27 Luca Canzian , Yu Zhang , Mihaela van der Schaar

This article proposes diffusion LMS strategies for distributed estimation over adaptive networks that are able to exploit sparsity in the underlying system model. The approach relies on convex regularization, common in compressive sensing,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-06-05 Paolo Di Lorenzo , Ali H. Sayed

This article addresses online variational estimation in parametric state-space models. We propose a new procedure for efficiently computing the evidence lower bound and its gradient in a streaming-data setting, where observations arrive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Mathis Chagneux , Mathias Müller , Pierre Gloaguen , Sylvain Le Corff , Jimmy Olsson

In the realm of cryptocurrency, the prediction of Bitcoin prices has garnered substantial attention due to its potential impact on financial markets and investment strategies. This paper propose a comparative study on hybrid machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Shun Liu , Kexin Wu , Chufeng Jiang , Bin Huang , Danqing Ma