Related papers: Comparative analysis of Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS…

Forecasting time series data is an important subject in economics, business, and finance. Traditionally, there are several techniques to effectively forecast the next lag of time series data such as univariate Autoregressive (AR),…

In this paper, a Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) model is studied when both low and high frequency variables are contaminated with measurement error. It is shown that the profile likelihood estimator becomes inconsistent in the presence of…

This article investigates factor-augmented sparse MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions for high-dimensional time series data, which may be observed at different frequencies. Our novel approach integrates sparse and dense dimensionality…

This paper demonstrates the potentials of the long short-term memory (LSTM) when applyingwith macroeconomic time series data sampled at different frequencies. We first present how theconventional LSTM model can be adapted to the time series…

Predicting the economy's short-term dynamics -- a vital input to economic agents' decision-making process -- often uses lagged indicators in linear models. This is typically sufficient during normal times but could prove inadequate during…

We propose a method of analyzing multivariate time series data that investigates lead-lag relationships among economic indicators during the COVID-19 era with a weighted directed network of lagged variables. The analysis includes a stock…

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the increasing need of policymakers for timely estimates of macroeconomic variables. A prior UNCTAD research paper examined the suitability of long short-term memory artificial neural networks (LSTM)…

This paper explores the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for economic forecasting, focusing on predicting CPI inflation rates. The study explores a new approach that integrates…

This paper applies a recurrent neural network, the LSTM, to forecast inflation. This is an appealing model for time series as it processes each time step sequentially and explicitly learns dynamic dependencies. The paper also explores the…

We investigate the predictive power of different machine learning algorithms to nowcast Madagascar's gross domestic product (GDP). We trained popular regression models, including linear regularized regression (Ridge, Lasso, Elastic-net),…

This paper evaluates the performance of prominent machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting Indonesia's inflation using the payment system, capital market, and macroeconomic data. We compare the forecasting performance of each ML…

Distributed Lag Models (DLMs) and similar regression approaches such as MIDAS have been used for many decades in econometrics and more recently to investigate how poor air quality adversely affects human health. In this paper we describe…

This paper examines the effectiveness of several forecasting methods for predicting inflation, focusing on aggregating disaggregated forecasts - also known in the literature as the bottom-up approach. Taking the Brazilian case as an…

Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized…

Nowcasting can play a key role in giving policymakers timelier insight to data published with a significant time lag, such as final GDP figures. Currently, there are a plethora of methodologies and approaches for practitioners to choose…

The proposed system aims to use various machine learning algorithms to enhance financial prediction and generate highly accurate analyses. It introduces an AI-driven platform which offers inflation-analysis, stock market prediction, and…

Large and acute economic shocks such as the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the current COVID-19 infections rapidly change the economic environment. In such a situation, the importance of real-time economic analysis using alternative datais…

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

Macroeconomic data are crucial for monitoring countries' performance and driving policy. However, traditional data acquisition processes are slow, subject to delays, and performed at a low frequency. We address this 'ragged-edge' problem…

In the dynamic landscape of continuous change, Machine Learning (ML) "nowcasting" models offer a distinct advantage for informed decision-making in both public and private sectors. This study introduces ML-based GDP growth projection models…