Related papers: PEP: a tackle value measuring the prevention of ex…
In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce…
This article addresses issues of model criticism and model comparison in Bayesian contexts, and focusses on the use of the so-called posterior predictive p-values (ppp values). These involve a general discrepancy or conflict measure and…
This paper presents some useful mathematical results involved in football table prediction. In addition, some empirical results indicate that an alternative methodology for football table prediction may produce high quality forecasts with…
There are two distinct definitions of 'P-value' for evaluating a proposed hypothesis or model for the process generating an observed dataset. The original definition starts with a measure of the divergence of the dataset from what was…
Football is a very result-driven industry, with goals being rarer than in most sports, so having further parameters to judge the performance of teams and individuals is key. Expected Goals (xG) allow further insight than just a scoreline.…
In the window mean-payoff objective, given an infinite path, instead of considering a long run average, we consider the minimum payoff that can be ensured at every position of the path over a finite window that slides over the entire path.…
Probabilistic Error Cancellation (PEC) aims to improve the accuracy of expectation values for observables. This is accomplished using the probabilistic insertion of recovery gates, which correspond to the inverse of errors. However, the…
How does one objectively measure the performance of an individual offensive lineman in the NFL? The existing literature proposes various measures that rely on subjective assessments of game film, but has yet to develop an objective…
We consider the problem of selecting covariates in spatial linear models with Gaussian process errors. Penalized maximum likelihood estimation (PMLE) that enables simultaneous variable selection and parameter estimation is developed and,…
The transfer fees of sports players have become astronomical. This is because bringing players of great future value to the club is essential for their survival. We present a case study on the key factors affecting the world's top soccer…
Automated vehicles require a comprehensive understanding of traffic situations to ensure safe and anticipatory driving. In this context, the prediction of pedestrians is particularly challenging as pedestrian behavior can be influenced by…
Decision trees are a popular family of models due to their attractive properties such as interpretability and ability to handle heterogeneous data. Concurrently, missing data is a prevalent occurrence that hinders performance of machine…
Foundation models often generate unreliable answers, while heuristic uncertainty estimators fail to fully distinguish correct from incorrect outputs, causing users to accept erroneous answers without any statistical guarantee. We address…
Discussions on outstanding---positively and/or negatively---athletes are common practice. The rapidly grown amount of collected sports data now allow to support such discussions with state of the art statistical methodology. Given a…
Prediction is critical for decision-making under uncertainty and lends validity to statistical inference. With targeted prediction, the goal is to optimize predictions for specific decision tasks of interest, which we represent via…
American football games attract significant worldwide attention every year. Identifying players from videos in each play is also essential for the indexing of player participation. Processing football game video presents great challenges…
This paper proposes a novel framework to assess individual player contributions in football, explicitly accounting for the cooperative nature of shot-ending offensive actions. By incorporating team interaction into player evaluation, it…
Orientation is a crucial skill for football players that becomes a differential factor in a large set of events, especially the ones involving passes. However, existing orientation estimation methods, which are based on computer-vision…
Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical…
This paper addresses the estimation of a time- varying parameter in a network. A group of agents sequentially receive noisy signals about the parameter (or moving target), which does not follow any particular dynamics. The parameter is not…