English
Related papers

Related papers: PEP: a tackle value measuring the prevention of ex…

200 papers

In football, attacking teams attempt to break through the opponent's defensive line to create scoring opportunities. This action, known as a Line Break, is a critical indicator of offensive effectiveness and tactical performance, yet…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Shoma Yagi , Jun Ichikawa , Genki Ichinose

This study explores the relationship between the performance of a football team and the topological parameters of temporal passing networks. To achieve this, we propose a method to identify moments of high and low team performance based on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-06-13 Andres Chacoma

Parameter estimation and the variable selection are two pioneer issues in regression analysis. While traditional variable selection methods require prior estimation of the model parameters, the penalized methods simultaneously carry on…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-01 Yetkin Tuaç , Olcay Arslan

Basketball games evolve continuously in space and time as players constantly interact with their teammates, the opposing team, and the ball. However, current analyses of basketball outcomes rely on discretized summaries of the game that…

Applications · Statistics 2017-01-11 Daniel Cervone , Alex D'Amour , Luke Bornn , Kirk Goldsberry

Benchmarks for the evaluation of model performance play an important role in machine learning. However, there is no established way to describe and create new benchmarks. What is more, the most common benchmarks use performance measures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-23 Alicja Gosiewska , Katarzyna Woźnica , Przemysław Biecek

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Euihyeon Choi , Jooyoung Kim , Wonkyung Lee

The National Football League (NFL) Scouting Combine serves as a tool to evaluate the skills of prospective players and assess their readiness to play in the NFL. The development of machine learning brings new opportunities in assessing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Brian Szekely , Christian Sinnott , Savannah Halow , Gregory Ryan

When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Moritz Hardt

Adversarial detection aims to determine whether a given sample is an adversarial one based on the discrepancy between natural and adversarial distributions. Unfortunately, estimating or comparing two data distributions is extremely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Shuhai Zhang , Feng Liu , Jiahao Yang , Yifan Yang , Changsheng Li , Bo Han , Mingkui Tan

A new method is proposed for variable screening, variable selection and prediction in linear regression problems where the number of predictors can be much larger than the number of observations. The method involves minimizing a penalized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-14 D. Vasiliu , T. Dey , I. L. Dryden

Most historical National Football League (NFL) analysis, both mainstream and academic, has relied on public, play-level data to generate team and player comparisons. Given the number of oft omitted variables that impact on-field results,…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-14 Michael J. Lopez

A knowledgeable observer of a game of football (soccer) can make a subjective evaluation of the quality of passes made between players during the game. We investigate the problem of producing an automated system to make the same evaluation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-22 Michael Horton , Joachim Gudmundsson , Sanjay Chawla , Joël Estephan

Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Ryan S. Brill , Ronald Yurko , Abraham J. Wyner

For decades, National Football League (NFL) coaches' observed fourth down decisions have been largely inconsistent with prescriptions based on statistical models. In this paper, we develop a framework to explain this discrepancy using an…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-06 Nathan Sandholtz , Lucas Wu , Martin Puterman , Timothy C. Y. Chan

Over the last few years, there has been a growing interest in the prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes, with particular emphasis placed on this area by the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In this…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-17 Roberto Macrì Demartino , Leonardo Egidi , Nicola Torelli

One of the main shortcomings of event data in football, which has been extensively used for analytics in the recent years, is that it still requires manual collection, thus limiting its availability to a reduced number of tournaments. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-01 Ferran Vidal-Codina , Nicolas Evans , Bahaeddine El Fakir , Johsan Billingham

In soccer, contextual player performance metrics are invaluable to coaches. For example, the ability to perform under pressure during matches distinguishes the elite from the average. Appropriate pressure metric enables teams to assess…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Chaoyi Gu , Jiaming Na , Yisheng Pei , Varuna De Silva

We developed an artificial intelligence approach to predict the transfer fee of a football player. This model can help clubs make better decisions about which players to buy and sell, which can lead to improved performance and increased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-31 Daniil Sulimov

Passing during power plays in hockey is a crucial component to move one's team closer to scoring a goal. With the use of women's ice hockey event and tracking data from the elimination round games during the 2022 Winter Olympics, we…

Applications · Statistics 2022-06-02 Robyn Ritchie , Alon Harell , Phil Shreeves

Football forecasting models traditionally rate teams on past match results, that is based on the number of goals scored. Goals, however, involve a high element of chance and thus past results often do not reflect the performances of the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-07 Edward Wheatcroft , Ewelina Sienkiewicz