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Continuous-time Bayesian networks is a natural structured representation language for multicomponent stochastic processes that evolve continuously over time. Despite the compact representation, inference in such models is intractable even…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Ido Cohn , Tal El-Hay , Nir Friedman , Raz Kupferman

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Karl Friston , Thomas Parr , Peter Zeidman

We study a mean-field spike and slab variational Bayes (VB) approximation to Bayesian model selection priors in sparse high-dimensional linear regression. Under compatibility conditions on the design matrix, oracle inequalities are derived…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-20 Kolyan Ray , Botond Szabo

Complex systems can be modelled at various levels of detail. Ideally, causal models of the same system should be consistent with one another in the sense that they agree in their predictions of the effects of interventions. We formalise…

Using theoretical and numerical results, we document the accuracy of commonly applied variational Bayes methods across a range of state space models. The results demonstrate that, in terms of accuracy on fixed parameters, there is a clear…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-25 David T. Frazier , Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin

We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Nicolas Bianco , Mauro Bernardi , Daniele Bianchi

Pattern formation is a widely observed phenomenon in diverse fields including materials physics, developmental biology and ecology, among many others. The physics underlying the patterns is specific to the mechanisms, and is encoded by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Z. Wang , X. Huan , K. Garikipati

There is a rich literature proposing methods and establishing asymptotic properties of Bayesian variable selection methods for parametric models, with a particular focus on the normal linear regression model and an increasing emphasis on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-16 Suprateek Kundu , David B. Dunson

Variational Bayes (VB) inference algorithm is used widely to estimate both the parameters and the unobserved hidden variables in generative statistical models. The algorithm -- inspired by variational methods used in computational physics…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-27 Hideyuki Miyahara , Vwani Roychowdhury

Structural equation models (SEMs) are fundamental to causal mediation pathway discovery. However, traditional SEM approaches often rely on \emph{ad hoc} model specifications when handling complex data structures such as mixed data types or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 Canyi Chen , Ritoban Kundu , Wei Hao , Peter X. -K. Song

Hierarchical learning models, such as mixture models and Bayesian networks, are widely employed for unsupervised learning tasks, such as clustering analysis. They consist of observable and hidden variables, which represent the given data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-08 Keisuke Yamazaki

We present a flexible Bayesian semiparametric mixed model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of potentially high-dimensional categorical covariates. Building on a novel hidden Markov tensor decomposition technique, our proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-05 Giorgio Paulon , Peter Müller , Abhra Sarkar

The increased availability of observation data from engineering systems in operation poses the question of how to incorporate this data into finite element models. To this end, we propose a novel statistical construction of the finite…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-25 Mark Girolami , Eky Febrianto , Ge Yin , Fehmi Cirak

For exchangeable data, mixture models are an extremely useful tool for density estimation due to their attractive balance between smoothness and flexibility. When additional covariate information is present, mixture models can be extended…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-01 Sara Wade , Vanda Inacio , Sonia Petrone

Real-time nonlinear Bayesian filtering algorithms are overwhelmed by data volume, velocity and increasing complexity of computational models. In this paper, we propose a novel ensemble based nonlinear Bayesian filtering approach which only…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-05 Xiao Lin , Gabriel Terejanu

Empirical researchers are usually interested in investigating the impacts of baseline covariates have when uncovering sample heterogeneity and separating samples into more homogeneous groups. However, a considerable number of studies in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-10 Jin Liu , Le Kang , Roy T. Sabo , Robert M. Kirkpatrick , Robert A. Perera

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Gregor Zens , Mark F. J. Steel

Modern methods for Bayesian regression beyond the Gaussian response setting are often computationally impractical or inaccurate in high dimensions. In fact, as discussed in recent literature, bypassing such a trade-off is still an open…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-14 Augusto Fasano , Daniele Durante , Giacomo Zanella

Empirical research in many social disciplines involves constructs that are not directly observable, such as behaviors. To model them, constructs must be operationalized using their relations with indicators. Structural equation modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Jonas Bauer , Axel Mayer , Christiane Fuchs , Tamara Schamberger

This work develops a Bayesian non-parametric approach to signal separation where the signals may vary according to latent variables. Our key contribution is to augment Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) for the case where each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-20 James Odgers , Ruby Sedgwick , Chrysoula Kappatou , Ruth Misener , Sarah Filippi