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Tennis is one of the world's biggest and most popular sports. Multiple researchers have, with limited success, modeled the outcome of matches using probability modelling or machine learning approaches. The approach presented here predicts…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-09 Martin Illum , Hans Christian Bechsøfft Mikkelsen , Emil Hovad

Bookmakers' odds consistently provide one of the most accurate methods for predicting the results of professional tennis matches. However, these odds usually only become available shortly before a match takes place, limiting their…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-25 Matthew J Penn , Jed Michael , Samir Bhatt

We propose a novel ranking model that combines the Bradley-Terry-Luce probability model with a nonnegative matrix factorization framework to model and uncover the presence of latent variables that influence the performance of top tennis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-14 Rui Xia , Vincent Y. F. Tan , Louis Filstroff , Cédric Févotte

This paper explores the concept of "momentum" in sports competitions through the use of the TOPSIS model and 0-1 logistic regression model. First, the TOPSIS model is employed to evaluate the performance of two tennis players, with…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-05 Mingpu Ma

The predictive analysis of match outcomes and player momentum in professional tennis has long been a subject of scholarly debate. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to game prediction by combining a multi-level fuzzy evaluation…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-15 Kechen Li , Jiaming Liu , Zhenyu Wu , Tianbo Ji

This paper discusses match result prediction ability of ATP ranking points, which is official ranking points for men's professional tennis players. The structure of overall ATP World Tour and the ranking point attribution system leads that…

Applications · Statistics 2017-05-18 Eiji Konaka

There is a hidden energy in tennis, which cannot be seen or touched. It is the force that controls the flow of the game and is present in all types of matches. This mysterious force is Momentum. This study introduces an evaluation model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-06 Chang Liu , Tongyuan Yang , Yan Zhao

Tennis is a popular sport worldwide, boasting millions of fans and numerous national and international tournaments. Like many sports, tennis has benefitted from the popularity of rigorous record-keeping of game and player information, as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-09 Zijian Gao , Amanda Kowalczyk

In the light of the need to achieve a ranking which is understood by all tennis supporters, the ATP ranking is exposed to constant complaints from players and at the same time exposes new players to be benefited with a good tournament to be…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-12-01 Alex Aronson

From the viewpoint of networks, a ranking system for players or teams in sports is equivalent to a centrality measure for sports networks, whereby a directed link represents the result of a single game. Previously proposed network-based…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-12-07 Shun Motegi , Naoki Masuda

This paper represents an analysis on the momentum of tennis match. And due to Generalization performance of it, it can be helpful in constructing a system to predict the result of sports game and analyze the performance of player based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Jingdi Lei , Tianqi Kang , Yuluan Cao , Shiwei Ren

Professional athletes increasingly use automated analysis of meta- and signal data to improve their training and game performance. As in other related human-to-human research fields, signal data, in particular, contain important…

Sound · Computer Science 2022-02-21 Lukas Stappen , Manuel Milling , Valentin Munst , Korakot Hoffmann , Bjorn W. Schuller

Probabilistic properties of tennis scoring systems are examined and compared with best-of-K systems. A model, where each player has his/her own probability of winning his/her service point and which remains invariant for the duration of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-04 Edsel A. Pena , Dip Das , Yuexuan Wu

This paper investigates the Tennis Momentum Model (TMM), which aims to enhance the understanding of match dynamics by integrating key factors such as efficiency, historical scoring probabilities, and real-time scoring data. The model is…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-30 Jackson Graves , Daniel X. Guo , Ridge Shepherd , Alexander Young

Serves, especially first serves, are very important in professional tennis. Servers choose their serve directions strategically to maximize their winning chances while trying to be unpredictable. On the other hand, returners try to predict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Ying Zhu , Ruthuparna Naikar

Understanding the dynamics of momentum and game fluctuation in tennis matches is cru-cial for predicting match outcomes and enhancing player performance. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of these factors using a dataset…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Wankang Zhai , Yuhan Wang

Machine learning, classification and prediction models have applications across a range of fields. Sport analytics is an increasingly popular application, but most existing work is focused on automated refereeing in mainstream sports and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-30 Sophie Chiang , Gyorgy Denes

Who are the most significant players in the history of men tennis? Is the official ATP ranking system fair in evaluating players scores? Which players deserved the most contemplation looking at their match records? Which players have never…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-04-24 Umberto Michieli

With the aid of mathematical modelling (basic tool is the random walk with absorbing barriers) we derive subsequent formulas to study the effect of different versions of possible rules. For different rules the probability of winning a game,…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2018-01-30 G. Szigeti

Individual sports competitions provide a natural setting for examining the relative importance of talent and luck/chance in achieving success. The belief that success is primarily due to individual abilities and hard work rather than…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-11-14 Chiara Zappalá , Alessio Emanuele Biondo , Alessandro Pluchino , Andrea Rapisarda
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