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In this paper, we study the accuracy of values aggregated over classes predicted by a classification algorithm. The problem is that the resulting aggregates (e.g., sums of a variable) are known to be biased. The bias can be large even for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-02 Q. A. Meertens , C. G. H. Diks , H. J. van den Herik , F W Takes

Causal inference plays an important role in explanatory analysis and decision making across various fields like statistics, marketing, health care, and education. Its main task is to estimate treatment effects and make intervention…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-22 Yingrong Wang , Haoxuan Li , Minqin Zhu , Anpeng Wu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Fei Wu , Kun Kuang

Identifying causal treatment (or exposure) effects in observational studies requires the data to satisfy the unconfoundedness assumption which is not testable using the observed data. With sensitivity analysis, one can determine how the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Yang Ou , Lu Tang , Chung-Chou H. Chang

Estimating causal quantities (CQs) typically requires large datasets, which can be expensive to obtain, especially when measuring individual outcomes is costly. This challenge highlights the importance of sample-efficient active learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Erdun Gao , Dino Sejdinovic

Dynamic prediction of causal effects under different treatment regimes conditional on an individual's characteristics and longitudinal history is an essential problem in precision medicine. This is challenging in practice because outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-07 Yizhen Xu , Jisoo Kim , Laura K. Hummers , Ami A. Shah , Scott Zeger

Experiments are the gold standard for causal inference. In many applications, experimental units can often be recruited or chosen sequentially, and the adaptive execution of such experiments may offer greatly improved inference of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-14 Difan Song , Simon Mak , C. F. Jeff Wu

Sepsis is a life-threatening and serious global health issue. This study combines knowledge with available hospital data to investigate the potential causes of Sepsis that can be affected by policy decisions. We investigate the underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Bruno Petrungaro , Neville K. Kitson , Anthony C. Constantinou

Federated causal inference enables multi-site treatment effect estimation without sharing individual-level data, offering a privacy-preserving solution for real-world evidence generation. However, data heterogeneity across sites, manifested…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Haoyang Li , Jie Xu , Kyra Gan , Fei Wang , Chengxi Zang

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Liuyi Yao , Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li , Yaliang Li , Jing Gao , Aidong Zhang

Bipartite experiments are a recent object of study in causal inference, whereby treatment is applied to one set of units and outcomes of interest are measured on a different set of units. These experiments are particularly useful in…

Progress in probabilistic generative models has accelerated, developing richer models with neural architectures, implicit densities, and with scalable algorithms for their Bayesian inference. However, there has been limited progress in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-31 Dustin Tran , David M. Blei

Bayesian forecasting is developed in multivariate time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Graham Tierney , Christoph Hellmayr , Greg Barkimer , Kevin Li , Mike West

Although understanding and characterizing causal effects have become essential in observational studies, it is challenging when the confounders are high-dimensional. In this article, we develop a general framework $\textit{CausalEGM}$ for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-20 Qiao Liu , Zhongren Chen , Wing Hung Wong

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is of prime importance in many disciplines, ranging from personalized medicine to economics among many others. Random forests have been shown to be a flexible and powerful approach to HTE…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Susanne Dandl , Torsten Hothorn , Heidi Seibold , Erik Sverdrup , Stefan Wager , Achim Zeileis

In clinical research, the lack of events of interest often necessitates imbalanced learning. One approach to resolve this obstacle is data integration or sharing, but due to privacy concerns neither is practical. Therefore, there is an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Seok-Ju Hahn , Junghye Lee

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

Automated feature engineering (AFE) enables AI systems to autonomously construct high-utility representations from raw tabular data. However, existing AFE methods rely on statistical heuristics, yielding brittle features that fail under…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Arun Vignesh Malarkkan , Wangyang Ying , Yanjie Fu

Federated Learning enables collaborative training of machine learning models on decentralized data. This scheme, however, is vulnerable to adversarial attacks, when some of the clients submit corrupted model updates. In real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Aleksandr Karakulev , Usama Zafar , Salman Toor , Prashant Singh

Understanding causal heterogeneity is essential for scientific discovery in domains such as biology and medicine. However, existing methods lack causal awareness, with insufficient modeling of heterogeneity, confounding, and observational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Wenrui Li , Qinghao Zhang , Xiaowo Wang

Dealing with uncertainty in Bayesian Network structures using maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation or Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is often intractable due to the superexponential number of possible directed, acyclic graphs. When the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-26 Brian D. Ziebart , Anind K. Dey , J Andrew Bagnell