Related papers: Extending the blended generalized extreme value di…
Extreme floods cause casualties, and widespread damage to property and vital civil infrastructure. We here propose a Bayesian approach for predicting extreme floods using the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution within gauged and…
This paper unifies and extends results on a class of multivariate Extreme Value (EV) models studied by Hougaard, Crowder, and Tawn. In these models both unconditional and conditional distributions are EV, and all lower-dimensional marginals…
The maximum likelihood method offers a standard way to estimate the three parameters of a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Combined with the block maxima method, it is often used in practice to assess the extreme value index…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
Extreme events such as natural and economic disasters leave lasting impacts on society and motivate the analysis of extremes from data. While classical statistical tools based on Gaussian distributions focus on average behaviour and can…
This article extends the multivariate extreme value theory (MEVT) to discrete settings, focusing on the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) as a foundational tool. The purpose of the study is to enhance the understanding of extreme…
In both high-performance computing (HPC) environments and the public cloud, the duration of time to retrieve or save your results is simultaneously unpredictable and important to your over all resource budget. It is generally accepted…
Designs conditions for marine structures are typically informed by threshold-based extreme value analyses of oceanographic variables, in which excesses of a high threshold are modelled by a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Too low a…
The weighted average is by far the most popular approach to combining multiple forecasts of some future outcome. This paper shows that both for probability or real-valued forecasts, a non-trivial weighted average of different forecasts is…
The main results of the extreme value theory developed for the investigation of the observables of dynamical systems rely, up to now, on the Gnedenko approach. In this framework, extremes are basically identified with the block maxima of…
Recent developments in extreme value statistics have established the so-called geometric approach as a powerful modelling tool for multivariate extremes. We tailor these methods to the case of spatial modelling and examine their efficacy at…
In this article, a generalized version of Negative binomial-beta exponential distribution with five parameters have been introduced. Some interesting submodels have been derived from it. A comprehensive mathematical treatment of proposed…
Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by using multi-model ensemble methods such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) embedded with the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. BMA is a popular method for…
In a companion paper (McRobie(2013) arxiv:1304.3918), a simple set of `elemental' estimators was presented for the Generalized Pareto tail parameter. Each elemental estimator: involves only three log-spacings; is absolutely unbiased for all…
Regional flood frequency analysis is commonly applied in situations where there exists insufficient data at a location for a reliable estimation of flood quantiles. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for a regional…
We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for spatial extremes on a large domain. In the data layer a Gaussian elliptical copula having generalized extreme value (GEV) marginals is applied. Spatial dependence in the GEV parameters are…
Conventional methods for extreme event estimation rely on well-chosen parametric models asymptotically justified from extreme value theory (EVT). These methods, while powerful and theoretically grounded, could however encounter a difficult…
Generalized variational inference (GVI) provides an optimization-theoretic framework for statistical estimation that encapsulates many traditional estimation procedures. The typical GVI problem is to compute a distribution of parameters…
Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…
Heatwaves, prolonged periods of extreme heat, have intensified in frequency and severity due to climate change, posing substantial risks to public health, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Despite advancements in Machine Learning (ML)…